The Louisville Cardinals (3-2) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (4-1) on Oct. 12 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Louisville vs. Virginia Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Louisville vs Virginia Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+6.85 Units / 79% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Tony Muskett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tony Muskett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).
- Louisville is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
- Louisville is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
- Louisville is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -2.27% ROI).
- Virginia is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 4% ROI
- Virginia is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- Virginia is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Louisville is 12-4 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .649
Louisville is 12-1 (.923) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .646
Louisville is 11-4 (.733) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .543
Louisville is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .534
Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537
Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Virginia is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Virginia is 6-10 (.375) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .542
Virginia’s TEs has gained 228 yards on 17 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.