The Louisville Cardinals (3-0) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Notre Dame, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Notre Dame is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6 (-115).
The Louisville vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 45.5 total points.
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Louisville vs Notre Dame Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 62.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Notre Dame, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Notre Dame Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Notre Dame has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+4.25 Units / 6% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Notre Dame players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Notre Dame Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Mitchell Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Steve Angeli has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jeremiyah Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 89.55% ROI).
Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Notre Dame is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI).
Louisville is 8-2 (.800) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .457
Louisville is 12-2 (.857) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .656
Louisville is 11-1 (.917) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .604
Louisville is 11-2 (.846) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .651
Notre Dame is 2-4 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536
Notre Dame is 12-1 (.923) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .762
Notre Dame is 13-3 (.812) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .619
Notre Dame is 13-4 (.765) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .647
Notre Dame’s QBs has thrown for 695 passing yards in 4 games (just 173.8 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 181.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 695 passing yards in 4 games (just 173.8 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 181.3 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.