Jeffrey Yass is the managing director of the Susquehanna International Group, an options trading company he started with money he earned from being a high-level tournament poker player. Yass went to Binghamton University for mathematics. He attempted to earn a graduate degree from New York University before the poker urge forced him to abandon his financial career plan. Today, Yass still uses his poker strategy when making decisions for Susquehanna. His foundational belief centers on this quote: “The biggest risk is that you have a losing strategy when you think you have a winning one.” Being realistically optimistic guards against making this mistake. We all need to be realistic this week when breaking down the conference championship games starting with the Bengals and the Chiefs.
There must be something about the Jaguars and Patrick Mahomes ankles as the two don’t seem to work well together. According to Chiefs coach Andy Reid, this isn’t the first time his quarterback will play on a high ankle sprain. In the 2019 season opener, fittingly against the Jags, Mahomes sprained his ankle—worse than he did on Saturday afternoon—and Mahomes played the Week 2 game against the Raiders and threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns. Mahomes did all his damage in the second quarter, scoring 28 points, and Reid, who knew Mahomes was injured, still called 44 passes and only 22 running plays in their 28-10 rout. If Mahomes plays like that on a bad ankle, watch out Cincinnati.
The bettors don’t believe Reid. The line opened with the Chiefs as a 1.5-point favorite and currently has the Bengals as a 1.5-point favorite, clearly, an indication bettors believe Mahomes won’t be himself. This guessing game will go on all week. The line will move back and forth like a Pete Sampras tennis match, volleying between the Chiefs and Bengals as unreliable information hits our Twitter feeds. For us as handicappers and for the Bengals, we need to borrow from Yass and not assume whether Mahomes is healthy or not. We must bet the game as if Mahomes is a full go—then make “in-game” adjustments.