What would you consider more important: Having momentum entering Wild-Card Weekend from winning your last game? Or playing poorly and looking out of sync? It’s not a trick question, and don’t fall for the easy answer, because the correct answer is — neither. Wild-Card Weekend is all about the current matchups, not who has been playing well or who can build off their success.
Dallas looking bad last Sunday was last Sunday and in our rearview mirror. Momentum is a word that's only meaningful the day of the game, it never carries over from one game to the next. All that talk about being a hot team can disappear in the first series of the next game. Don’t believe me? Ask the 2019 Baltimore Ravens or the 2020 New Orleans Saints. We all know one bad play can alter a game, change momentum, so why would we trust anything that has occurred in the past week? We shouldn’t and neither will the coaches. For all of us handicappers, the past is the past, and we need to focus on the matchups and disregard Week 18 outcomes or performances. It’s a new season, and teams that advance this time of the year have certain traits and execute well in specific areas.
In boxing, there is an old saying that styles make fights. And in the NFL playoffs, style is everything. To advance to the next round, games must be played a certain way depending on the opponent. The teams that understand how to adapt their style and have an adaptable talent base will prevail. In this round, all the games are rematches from the 2022 regular season. Familiarity with the opponent allows further wisdom of how to adapt the style of play. The Seahawks know the 49ers well, and each time they played this season, once in Week 2 and then in Week 15, they have been unable to adapt their style. Seattle is fully aware of the challenges that await, and if the Seahawks don’t radically change, the third time won’t be a charm. The past matchups only favor the teams that make the correct adjustments — not who won or could have won. The coaching advantage will be obvious for all to see once the final game is played. But we need to handicap the coordinators and th e head coach before assuming the second or third time will be a different result.
Beyond style, there are certain characteristics winning teams possess in January. Here is my guide to winning playoff games: