I've enjoyed reading Ed Smith's wonderful book called . Smith, a former cricket star and selector for England's team, has written five books and has spent a great deal of time studying leadership, the value of luck in each game, and how to make better decisions. In an early part of the book, Smith writes: “Vision always follows from insight. The great sports coaches and strategists, before they address how to play in the upcoming matches, first find hidden truths in what has already happened.” With three first-time head coaches being in their first playoff game, and two coaching in their first as a head coach, looking back and understanding the hidden truths towards winning will be crucial.
This advice also applies to any handicapper, professional bettor, or causal fan looking to put some pizza money down on the games.' Looking back is one of the best things our Steve Makinen does.' In his column this week, Makinen gave an impressive betting trend not to be ignored.' In the last 62 Wild Card games, the outright winner was 54-7-1 against the spread-meaning the spread is 88% useless. Simply stated, pick the winner, and don't worry about the spread.' But as we know from this NFL season, picking winners is not as easy as it sounds.
Picking the winners is the hard part, and Smith's advice regarding the strategist finding the hidden truths is a helpful tool.' In this round, we have 12 head coaches: seven of them have playoff experience, and five do not.' We have three first-time head coaches in the game, Brian Daboll of the Giants, Kevin O'Connell of the Vikings, and Mike McDaniel of the Dolphins.' All the rookie coaches have been part of playoff teams-Super Bowl teams-providing them with the experience of understanding the difference between the regular season and the playoffs.' In addition to the experience of being in the game, these coaches must understand the difference between being aggressive and being stupid.' As my favorite philosopher Bruce Springsteen once wrote: “Sometimes, I can't tell my courage from my desperation.”' Navigating that thin line is the difference between winning and losing in this round.
Frank Reich, formerly the head man of the Colts, entered the playoffs in 2020, with two playoff games under his belt as a head coach.' In 2018, he was 1-1 with Andrew Luck at quarterback, beating the Texans on the road and then losing to the Chiefs.' In 2020, with more experience as a playoff head coach. he took his team to Buffalo to face the number 2 seed Bills.' Reich acted like a desperate man, passing up points at the end of the half, which caused him to then chase points for the remainder of the game.' His reckless “in-game” decisions cost the Colts because in playoff games there is no next week. Therefore, what is decided in the first quarter impacts the fourth.' Collecting points matters.' Don't believe me?' Ask Chiefs coach Andy Reid, a sure-fire Hall of Famer who last season turned down three points at the end of the half, which would have extended his lead to 24-10.' In the second half, the Chiefs only scored 3 points and lost in over time, by three.' Had Reid kicked, the outcome might have been different.' In playoff games, take the easy points, because, in the fourth quarter of a close game, those points will be important.'