The Detroit Lions (1-3) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-3) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough.
The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Lions vs. Patriots Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Lions vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 5 game with 53.5% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread this Week 5 with 60.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Lions and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.35 Units / 66% ROI)
- Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Lions Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+7.40 Units / 106% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Patriots Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Lions are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -56.25% ROI
- Lions are 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Lions are 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 1-2 (-1.1 Units / -25.58% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -43.96% ROI
- Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Lions are winless (0-5-1) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.
The Lions are 2-10-1 (.154) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .482.
The Lions are 1-12 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 26 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.
The Lions are 1-3-1 (.200) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .735.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Patriots are 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Lions have intercepted 12 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.
The Patriots are winless (0-7) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.