The Detroit Lions (3-1-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Arlington, TX.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Lions vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.
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Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dak Prescott has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 41% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 44.19% ROI).
- Lions are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -6.19% ROI
- Lions are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
- Lions are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -24.07% ROI).
- Cowboys are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -6.1% ROI
- Cowboys are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Cowboys are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Lions are undefeated (6-0) after a loss since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .484.
The Lions are 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .277.
The Lions were 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Cowboys are 11-4 (.733) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 249.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys were 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Cowboys are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .485.
Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 16.7% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 23.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 5th-best in NFL.