The top-seeded San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions in Sunday's NFC Championship Game with a spot in the 2024 Super Bowl on the line, and we're analyzing this matchup with our Lions vs. 49ers prediction based on the best NFL odds.
We're just hours away from kickoff for the AFC and NFC Championships, and our Super Bowl odds have the San Francisco 49ers as the consensus favorites. All that stands between them and the big game is a visit from the Detroit Lions – who have the longest odds of any team on Championship Sunday and the longest shot of any team in our Super Bowl predictions.
The Divisional Round presented both squads with tough opponents, and while each affair was a one-score game and sealed with an interception, they played out very differently. The 49ers needed late-game heroics to overcome the Green Bay Packers and eke out a victory; the Li ons needed to hold off a late charge from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After hosting the Los Angeles Rams on Wild Card Weekend and the Bucs in the Divisional Round, Detroit and its fans are hitting the road for the first time this postseason. Meanwhile, the 49ers stay home in Santa Clara, aiming to head to Las Vegas after this week. They'll get to do with star wideout Deebo Samuel, who enters the game with no injury designation after missing most of last week's outing with a shoulder injury.
In their first opportunity in the NFC Championship Game in more than 30 years, will the Lions capture it, or will they let it slip?
As part of our look at the NFC Championship odds and to accompany our Lions vs. 49ers player props, here are our best Lions vs. 49ers predictions and our NFL picks for the NFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence base d on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. 49ers prediction: NFC Championship
Best odds: -113 via BetRivers
As if fading a budding star in rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs wasn't sweaty enough, now we turn our attention to arguably the best running back in football in Christian McCaffrey.
Last week, I took the Under on McCaffrey's rushing and receiving yards, and he just barely cleared the rushing line while failing to go Over his receiving total. Well, we're going back to the well and fading McCaffrey once again.
However, we're targeting his volume rather than efficiency this week. In the 49ers' victory against the Green Bay Packers, McCaffrey ran the ball only 17 times. In fact, he cleared this rushing attempts total only four times during the regular season, with three of them coming in San Francisco's first four games.
The data suggests that we're getting outrageous value on this bet. Across five projection models, McCaffrey's average rushing attempts total is 16.89. When we run that against BetRivers' -113 odds on Under 19.5, we're getting better than 40% positive expected value on this bet.
Additionally, those aforementioned odds at BetRivers are somewhat rogue. Most of our best sports betting apps have the Under priced around -130.
Even if we were to use NumberFire's high mark of 18.67 projected rushing attempts, we'd get better than 11% +EV on this bet.
Pick up a hammer, go to your BetRivers app, and absolutely smash this Under (not literally, please; I can't be held accountable for cellphone damage). I hit this one for 1.5 units.
Our own Philip Wood has a different take on the 49ers' star rusher with his Christian McCaffrey NFL player props.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel
I liked this bet earlier in the week, but it was based on only one projection model, and now that we have access to more, we can see we're not getting positive expected value on the Under.
Additionally, our best sportsbooks have shifted the rushing yardage lines of Gibbs and David Montgomery, with the former's going up three yards since Monday and the latter's dropping. That's the risk of betting player props early in the week.
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Lions vs. 49ers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| -130 | -130 | -128 | -128 | -115 |
As is usually the case with player props, we see the value of shopping across multiple best sports betting sites. Only bet365 offers a competitive price, and it offers a great secondary option for those without access to BetRivers.
Two of our best NFL prop betting sites have the Under priced at odds that result in nearly a 10% difference in expected value. That may not seem significant in a vacuum, but over an extended period of time, the potential profit certainly adds up.
Therefore, for the best price on this prop, be sure to use our exclusive BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS!
Lions vs. 49ers odds
Lions vs. 49ers odds analysis
This game opened with the 49ers at 7-point favorites, and all but one of our best sportsbooks have that same spread on Thursday afternoon. For those lo oking to back the underdogs, head to DraftKings (-120) or BetRivers (-115) for Lions +7.5.
All of our other best live betting sites have 49ers -7 juiced to -120.
As for the total, it opened at 51, but it's now moved to 51.5 at all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos. They're all offering standard -110 on both the Over and Under, too.
Lions vs. 49ers game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- How to watch: Fox
- Weather: 70 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Lions-49ers prediction made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.