San Francisco hosts Detroit in the NFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, and we're analyzing the Sunday night matchup with our Lions vs. 49ers prediction based on the best NFL odds.
Entering Championship Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers remain the favorites to win it all based on our Super Bowl odds. Meanwhile, their opponents, the gritty Detroit Lions, are officially the biggest underdogs remaining.
We see that split in the odds for this game, too, as the 49ers are as short as -360 on the moneyline at FanDuel.
The divisional round presented both teams with a challenging matchup, as each game came down to the wire and was secured by an interception on the opponent's final drive of a one-score game.
Detroit and its fans hit the road for the first time this postseason after hosting the Los Angeles Rams on Wild Ca rd Weekend and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round. For the 49ers, they remain at home with the goal of leaving it for Las Vegas after this week.
In their first opportunity in the NFC Championship Game in more than 30 years, will the Lions capture it, or will they let it slip?
As part of our look at the NFC Championship odds and to accompany our Super Bowl predictions, here is our best Lions vs. 49ers prediction and our NFL picks for the NFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. 49ers prediction
As if fading a budding star in rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs wasn't sweaty enough, now we turn our attention to arguably the best running back in football in Christian McCaffrey.
Last week, I took the Under on McCaffrey's rushing and receiving yards, and he just barely cleared the rushing line while failing to go Over his receiving total. Well, we're going back to the well and fading McCaffrey once again.
However, we're targeting his volume rather than efficiency this week. In the 49ers' victory against the Green Bay Packers, McCaffrey ran the ball only 17 times. In fact, he cleared this rushing attempts total only four times during the regular season, with three of them coming in San Francisco's first four games.
The data suggests that we're getting outrageous value on this bet. Across five projection models, McCaffrey's average rushing attempts total is 16.89. When we run that against BetRivers' -113 odds on Under 19.5, we're getting better than 40% positive expected value on this bet.
Additionally, those aforementioned odds at BetRivers are somewhat rogue. Most of our best sports betting apps have the Under priced around -130.
Even if we were to use NumberFire's high mark of 18.67 projected rushing attempts, we'd get better than 11% +EV on this bet.
Pick up a hammer, go to your BetRivers app, and absolutely smash this Under (not literally, please; I can't be held accountable for cellphone damage). I hit this one for 1.5 units.
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Lions vs. 49ers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| -130 | -130 | -128 | -128 | -115 |
As is usually the case with player props, we see the value of shopping across multiple best sports betting sites. Only bet365 offers a competitive price, and it offers a great secondary option for those without access to BetRivers.
Two of our best NFL prop betting sites have the Under priced at odds that result in nearly a 10% difference in expected value. That may not seem significant in a vacuum, but over an extended period of time, the potential profit certainly adds up.
Therefore, for the best price on this prop, be sure to use our exclusive BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS!
Lions vs. 49ers odds
Lions vs. 49ers odds analysis
This game opened with the 49ers at 7-point favorites, and all but one of our best sportsbooks have that same spread on Thursday afternoon. For those lo oking to back the underdogs, head to DraftKings (-120) or BetRivers (-115) for Lions +7.5.
All of our other best live betting sites have 49ers -7 juiced to -120.
As for the total, it opened at 51, but it's now moved to 51.5 at all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos. They're all offering standard -110 on both the Over and Under, too.
Lions vs. 49ers game info
- When: Sun, Jan. 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- How to watch: Fox
- Weather: 70 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Lions-49ers prediction made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.
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