Lionel Messi makes his long-awaited MLS debut for Inter Miami this weekend. Will the Ballon d'Or favorite fire enough goals to launch an implausible playoff push? Check out our Lionel Messi MLS pick for Saturday's New York Red Bulls-Inter Miami matchup.
Messi recorded a first for Inter Miami on Wednesday night: He failed to score.
However, he did provide two outstanding assists, including the cross for the team's 97th-minute equalizer during the comeback win at Cincinnati in the U.S. Open Cup semifinal. The Argentinean has now tallied 13 goal involvements for the club during 2023 in all competitions, which is the second most on the team behind Robert Taylor (14). Taylor has featured in 31 matches, while Messi has played eight. The penalty shootout victory means he's heading to another final.
Next, Messi goes to the Big Apple , where he'll make his MLS debut against a team that's conceding more than a goal per game in the league. Will he rediscover his goalscoring touch?
Here's our best Lionel Messi MLS pick for Saturday's New York-Inter Miami matchup (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lionel Messi pick: New York vs. Inter Miami
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Inter Miami have now scored more goals in eight games with Messi (25) than they have in 22 MLS games without him (22). He's in scintillating form, with at least one goal involvement in every game for the Herons.
The New York Red Bulls kept two clean sheets over their last eight MLS contests before the Leagues Cup break. Their xGA of 22 is the lowest of all the sides in the Eastern Conference. They've posted a negative goal differential of minus-3 while conceding 26 goals across 23 league games, 13 of which have come at home.
Inter Miami were at the bottom of the MLS standings when the league paused for the Leagues Cup in July. They came back from being down 2-0 on the road to a Cincinnati side on Wednesday that was top of the table before the break. Messi masterminded that remarkable comeback, and he's the main reason the Herons are unbeaten in eight games.
Miami head coach Tata Martino said after Wednesday's shootout win that Messi and a few players will need to be rested over the next two to three games, so playing time is a consideration.
But Messi hit 15 shots on target and recorded an xG value of 4.08 across seven Leagues Cup matches. Both of those marks rank third on Inter Miami for the entire 33-game season in all competitions.
Even if his minutes are reduced, Messi is still Miami's biggest threat going forward. Don't be afraid to back his incredible scoring ability.
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Lionel Messi best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer |
| -125 | -125 | -110 | -105 | -125 |
Caesars did have this priced at +100 on Thursday, but it dipped slightly to -105. These odds are still good value for a player who has scored 10 goals in eight games. BetMGM has raised the odds from -120 to -110, while bet365 has also improved its odds. And on Friday morning both DraftKings and FanDuel raised their prices from -135 to -125. That might be in reaction Martino's announcement about resting players.
Cincinnati showed how to stop Messi from scoring on Wednesday night, but the club is the top team in MLS heading into this weekend's fixtures. New York Red Bulls are conceding an average of 1.08 goals per game. If you're confident Messi can find the net twice in this match, he's +500 to score two-plus goals.
He's so potent that a goalscoring play is the right one every match. The odds might be high, but I'm putting four stars on it.
New York vs. Inter Miami game info
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass
- Location: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ
- Weather: 77 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds
Lionel Messi MLS pick made 8/25/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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