Lionel Messi and Inter Miami are a match made in heaven. He's had four goal involvements in two games, including a match-winning free-kick in his debut and a brace against Atlanta United that helped secure Miami's passage to the round of 32 in the Leagues Cup. Next up is another home game, this time against Orlando City SC in the knockout rounds. Check out our Lionel Messi Leagues Cup picks for Wednesday's Orlando City vs. Inter Miami matchup.
Could we be set for Barcelona 2.0 in south Florida? Joining Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba this week was Camp Nou great, Andres Iniesta. David Beckham's side has suddenly become the team to beat, winning both of its group games in the inaugural Leagues Cup competition.
Orlando will be no pushovers for Messi and Co., however. They're currently seventh in the overall MLS league table with a 43%-win record a nd have 19 more points than Miami. They also beat Inter 3-1 the last time these two sides met in May.
With an xGA of 1.64 on the road, can they keep Lionel Messi at bay?
Here is our best Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick for Wednesday's Inter Miami vs. Orlando City matchup (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick: Orlando City vs. Inter Miami
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Inter Miami finished the group stage last Tuesday, beating Atlanta United 4-0. While Lionel Messi has had a week to train with his new teammates, Orlando only secured their qualification to the last 32 on Sunday. Their win on the road t o Mexican side Santos Laguna came after a 92nd minute winner by Peruvian midfielder Wilder Cartagena. Inter Miami have the advantage with an extra five days of rest.
Orlando City have kept one clean sheet in their last six games in all competitions. Their defense isn't great. They're conceding an average of one goal per game at home and 1.45 goals per game on the road. It's not terrible defending, but it's certainly a defense that Messi can expose.
Against Atlanta United, Inter Miami converted a third of their shots. Each opposition is different, but Miami's possession did increase from Messi's first game (when he came on as a substitute) to his second match, which he started. He will have had a full week of preparation with his teammates for Wednesday's matchup.
In last season's UEFA Champions League, Messi had an xG of 2.6. It was down from 4.9 the season before, but Juventus, Benfica, and Bayern Munich are tougher opponents than Orlando City. Add Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets to his supporting cast, and Messi's scoring potential increases from his last outing in Miami colors.
He scored a brace against Atlanta. I say back him to repeat it against Orlando on Wednesday.
Lionel Messi best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Messi to score two-plus goals | Messi to score two-plus goals | Messi to score two-plus goals | Messi to score two-plus goals | Messi to score two-plus goals |
| N/A | +210 | +400 | +210 | N/A |
Inter Miami's leading scorer in MLS this season is Josef Martinez (6). The Venezuelan has taken 20 games to reach that total. Messi has scored half that amount in just two appearances. The Argentine has yet to play a full match for Miami.
David Beckham hasn't signed him to just sell jerseys. He wants to bring success to his franchise and Messi is the man to deliver it. Everything in attack will go through number 10. A career xG of 146.3 tells you he's going to put the ball in the back of the net more often than not.
A playoff run in the MLS season isn't out of the realm of possibility, but an inaugural Leagues Cup title will be Messi's perfect introduction to North America. The books have slashed his odds as an anytime scorer. The best value is -135 via BetMGM, while FanDuel is offering -220.
BetMGM's value on a multi-score performance is exceptional and should be seized upon while it's nearly double what the others are offering.
Messi proved that he doesn't need a full match to score multiple goals. He should get more minutes because he's had extra training time, but with the uncertainty around how much action he'll see, I'm going to stick three stars on this play. Take these odds while you can.
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami game info
- Date: Wednesday, Aug. 2, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: Apple TV
- Location: DRV PNK Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
- Weather: 84 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds
Lionel Messi Leagues Cup pick made 08/01/2023 at 1 p.m. ET.
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