As we wrap up the 2023-24 Bowl season this weekend, I’ve prepared my final group of best bets for the season, including picks on both of the CFP Semifinal games. Enjoy the action and Happy New Year!
College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | College Football Power Ratings
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2023
Clemson (-4.5, 45) vs. Kentucky
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Clemson has stumbling and bumbling around the midseason mark this year, and it took head coach Dabo Swinney seemingly getting angry and defiant about the quality of his program and the players in it to wake them up. The Tigers went on to win their last four games outright and ATS to eventually earn a Gator Bowl bid versus Kentucky. Is it the best bowl game that Swinney and his team have ever played? Of course not, but from all indications, it does seem to mean a lot to them.
Speaking of Swinney, he will have a large bowl game coaching experience edge in this one over Kentucky’s Stoops, and as such, this system will be in play: Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%). Also, favorites are on a run of 22-3 SU and 18-7 ATS in Gator Bowl games, and considering this line is only four points when my Power Ratings say it should be 7.5, Clemson is an underpriced favorite.
Let’s lay the 4-points (+/-1) with Clemson
Notre Dame (-6, 41.5) vs. Oregon State
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
As of Thursday, 75% of the betting handle at DraftKings for the Sun Bowl was coming in on Notre Dame as 6-point favorites. Some of it may have come in before Irish QB Sam Hartman opted out of the game, but even with that money disparity, the line has dropped from 10.5 points to 6. Going into this season, in bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
The fact that the Irish are 6-point favorites is also important in terms of the history of the Sun Bowl, as favorites of five points or more are just 1-13 ATS in the Sun Bowl game since 1995. Both teams have had key opt-outs, and in a game that has historically seen a lot of weird stuff happen over the years, I see very little reason why anyone would lay points.
Let’s go with Oregon State +6 (+/-1)
Missouri vs. Ohio State (-3.5, 49)
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Missouri has found the going quite tough since joining the SEC, but the Tigers enjoyed a big year and won double-digit games for the first time since 2014. They have a chance to win their first bowl game since the end of that season as well, but the team standing in their way is the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes. Of course, I use the term “mighty” very loosely in this case, as it seems that the Cotton Bowl is the last place the program wants to be after yet another loss to Michigan to close the regular season. Not only was this OSU team far from its usual standards in terms of offensive capability, but for this bowl game, it seems that more key players are opting out or transferring than looking to play.
I can almost guarantee that even on the day before the game, we have not heard the last of this news. There is no doubt in my mind that Missouri wants to be here a lot more. We’ll see if that’s the difference, but if line moves are any indication, the experts behind the counter feel the same as I do. The Tigers went from 6-point dogs at opening to -2.5 favorites at last check. They played the best teams on their schedule this year very well, too, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS versus bowl teams. I expect this to be a competitive game.
Let’s go Missouri +3.5, or wherever it goes to at kickoff based upon WR Harrison status
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2023
Ole Miss vs. Penn State (-4.5, 48.5)
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
In its two most critical games this season against quality opponents, Penn State mustered a total of 27 points on Ohio State and Michigan. The offense totally misfired. Would I put Ole Miss on the level of those two teams? Probably a bit below that, but still a high-quality opponent with a solid defense. The other thing Ole Miss does is run the ball often. Like PSU, the Rebels run the ball over 56% of the time. The problem here is that I don’t believe either team will be able to overwhelm the other upfront.
What does this all mean to me? Well, I think we could be looking at a defensive slugfest where the first team that gets to 20 points wins it. If you want some trends to affirm it, Ole Miss has gone Under the total in its last six bowl games, and head coach Lane Kiffin has a 5-0 Under the total bowl game record since ’12.
Let’s go UNDER 48.5 (+/-1.5 points) in the Peach Bowl
Georgia (20, 44.5) vs. Florida State
Capital One Orange Bowl
For as much as it seems like neither team cares a whole lot about the Orange Bowl on Saturday, it seems as if FSU cares less, as it sounds like 20 key players will be missing the game, including the #1, #2, and #4 quarterbacks. Almost as if the school is trying to make a mockery of the game because of what happened in the deciding of the final four playoff teams.