We assess whether a skilled QB can shake off a rough playoff resume during Saturday's Divisional Round clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans as we make our Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.
Lamar Jackson, the quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, is gearing up for what may be the most crucial game of his career as he prepares to face the Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round matchup on Saturday.
While Jackson is 1-3 in the postseason, the underlying metrics have been much worse. Jackson has posted the worst total playoff passing DYAR since 1981 among all quarterbacks with at least 150 postseason passing attempts, according to the DVOA database.
But this is Jackson's chance to rewrite his playoff narrative, as his top-seeded Ravens are nearly double-digit favorites against one of the more surprising squads in the NFL during 2023-24. Will Jackson do what's necessary to lead Baltimore to the AFC Championship Game?
To go along with our Texans vs. Ravens prediction and our C.J. Stroud NFL player props, and as part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions and Super Bowl picks and predictions, here are our best Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for the Texans vs. Ravens Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for Divisional Round
- Lamar Jackson to not score a touchdown (-135 via ESPN BET) ?????
- Lamar Jackson longest completion Under 37.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ????
- SGP: Lamar Jackson Under 0.5 interceptions + Ravens ML (-109 via ESPN BET) ???
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Lamar Jackson player props
While there's plenty of reason to believe Jackson will break his playoff curse on Saturday, this prop is simply being featured at too good of a price. Jackson has only scored five rushing touchdowns in 2023-24, finding paydirt in just three of his 17 games.
The Ravens have opted to not rely on Jackson's legs as much with Todd Monken callin g plays this season. That could certainly change in the playoffs, but Gus Edwards remains a reliable red-zone option out of the backfield. Edwards has scored 13 touchdowns in 2023-24.
Also, the total for this game is hovering around 43 at our best sports betting sites. The Ravens will get a team total below 30 on a frigid and windy afternoon in Baltimore. Touchdowns could be limited, so shop around for one of the select books offering a no option in the anytime touchdown odds market.
It's expected to be cold and windy on Saturday afternoon when the first Divisional Round matchup of the weekend gets underway. While much of the weather analysis this week has been focusing on C.J. Stroud's struggles in the cold as Sean Tomlinson also noted in his Texans-Ravens prop picks, it's reasonable to expect the conditions to impact Jackson, too.
Only Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a higher longest completion yardage prop, with Jackson tied for third-longest among all quarterbacks playing this weekend. Stroud's longest completion prop is trading at 36.5 yards, despite the Texans being known for hitting explosive plays.
Jackson cleared this mark in nine of his 16 games during 2023-24, but there were plenty of unconnected deep shots left on the table. Jackson ranks seventh among current postseason quarterbacks (ahead of only Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions) in big-time throws this campaign, according to PFF.
The Texans were effective at limiting chunk passing plays in Week 1, with Jackson's longest completion going for just 29 yards. We expect a similar game plan on Saturday, and FanDuel is the only shop hanging a 37.5 for this prop. Most of our best sportsbooks are at 36.5.
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ESPN BET is offering -135 odds on Jackson to not throw an interception, which is the best price on the market. The rest of our NFL prop betting sites are charging between -145 and -155 for the same ticket. We certainly believe that's a good bet on its own, but this same-game parlay keeps us from putting a pair of -135 wagers on this card.
There's some correlation to Jackson playing a clean game and the Ravens reaching the AFC Championship Game for the first time since their Super Bowl run in 2012. Jackson has thrown 14 interceptions in his 24 losses and 31 picks across 62 wins.
The signal-caller has been picked off five times in four postseason games, which is why we're getting su ch an attractive price on this wager. He finished 10 contests this past regular season without an interception, and we expect another clean performance in the most significant matchup of the year.
Lamar Jackson player prop picks made Friday at 9:35 a.m. ET.
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