In a highly-anticipated Western Conference semifinal showdown, the Golden State Warriors will play host to the Los Angeles Lakers in Tuesday's Game 1. Read on for our Lakers vs. Warriors prediction based on the best NBA odds.
Congrats, NBA. You got your dream second-round matchup after Stephen Curry poured in 50 points to help the Golden State Warriors win Game 7 against the Sacramento Kings. Now the defending champs turn their attention to Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
This series should be electric from start to finish, and will certainly lead to plenty of hot takes in the NBA community. But we are focused on cashing tickets, starting with a defensive player prop for Game 1 on a night where the Warriors are 4.5-point favorites over the Lakers.
Here is our best Lakers vs. Warriors prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence b ased on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lakers vs. Warriors prediction
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The best part about the NBA Playoffs is that so much changes from a personnel and scheme standpoint in each round. Just because something worked in the opening round, doesn't mean a team will go back to it in the next series. Keep that in mind when betting on this Lakers-Warriors matchup.
Los Angeles role players Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt were pivotal in a six-game series victory over the Memphis Grizzlies. But I question how many minutes they will get in this matchup, as both players could struggle with chasing the Warriors' guards through screens.
Rather than betting against them i n Game 1, I'm choosing to use that logic to bet on Lakers guard Dennis Schroder instead. He's effective at fighting off ball screens, which means he and Austin Reaves will likely handle the bulk of the Curry assignment.
While nobody can slow down Curry, it does mean that Schroder should be more involved in this series. That's a big reason why his steals prop is worth attacking, especially after Schroder recorded seven steals over the final four games during the Memphis matchup.
Counting the Play-In Tournament, Schroder has tallied at least one steal in five of the seven games this postseason. He is averaging 1.2 steals per contest in the playoffs after recording an average of 0.8 steals per outing in the regular season.
Props.cash projects Schroder to record 1.13 steals in Game 1, which is enough of a margin to take this Over price at DraftKings. The Warriors ranked 30th in tu rnover rate during the regular season and allowed opposing teams to record 7.9 steals per contest against them.
The Lakers might not be equipped to take full advantage of Golden State's turnover issues, but we are betting on Schroder to capitalize on one mistake in the series opener.
Lakers vs. Warriors best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 steals | Over 0.5 steals | Over 0.5 steals | Over 0.5 steals | Over 0.5 steals |
| -115 | N/A | -120 | N/A | N/A |
Most of the best sportsbooks have yet to put up a line for this particular prop, but both BetMGM and DraftKings are here to save the day. We placed this bet at the latter shop to save a few cents, though this line is playable at anything -120 or better.
If you are looking for a different way to bet on an extended role for Schroder, the assist market is worth a look. NumberFire projects 3.6 assists for Schroder in Game 1, giving us a 16% edge on his Over of 2.5 assists (-140) at BetMGM.
In the end, we settled on the steals market to avoid the juice and bank on one defensive play from Schroder.
Lakers vs. Warriors odds
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Lakers vs. Warriors odds analysis
The Warriors are now 4.5-point favorites after opening at -5 at our best NBA betting sites, a market movement that is likely due to the Lakers' rest advantage. The total is sitting at 227 after the line started at 228.5 at the best sports betting sites.
Lakers vs. Warriors game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 2, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Lakers-Warriors pick made 05/02/2023 at 1:05 p.m. ET.
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