After an outlier season, the Heisman Trophy returned to normalcy last fall.
To be clear, “normalcy” isn’t encouraged. But the reality remains somewhat simple: great quarterbacks on great teams, particularly those who deliver great individual performances, have a leg up on the field.
While many made pushes throughout the season, Bryce Young’s consistency, coupled with Alabama’s improbable comeback win against Auburn that he parlayed into a brilliant performance in the SEC championship game, was enough to take home the prize.
Young started the season around 9-1 to win the award. He was one of the favorites, along with a slew of other quarterbacks on teams with playoff aspirations.
This is normal. And in 2022, the list of quarterbacks capable of winning the Heisman has only grown. Sure, there are a handful of intriguing skill-position players and even a defensive player worth monitoring.
But if “different” is what you seek when it comes to the Heisman, this might not be the fall where those wishes come true.
Here are some of my favorite Heisman betting opportunities up and down the board.
MY FAVORITE CHALK
Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (+ 250)
He isn’t just my favorite chalk. He is chalk.
Historically, I don’t back the favorite to win the award. My inner contrarian normally won’t allow it, and history has told us that betting favorites don’t normally end up winning the award. Stroud, however, feels like a worthy exception.
In his first year starting, Ohio State’s quarterback passed for 44 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He accomplished this despite looking a little jittery early in the season.
He passed for 400 or more yards five times. (His 393-yard, six-touchdown first half against Michigan State was one of the greatest halves of football the sport has seen.)
Stroud appeared in line to win the award before the Buckeyes lost to Michigan. Young’s Superman effort against Georgia flipped the script, but Stroud was right there. He ultimately finished fourth in the voting.
He should be better this year. Although Ohio State had two wideouts taken in the first round of the NFL draft, the Buckeyes are loaded at the position. Wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+ 2800) could even play his way into the Heisman discussion.
Beyond the individual talent of Stroud and an offensive that should allow him to thrive, Ohio State has a manageable schedule. The Buckeyes play their most important games of the season — Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan — at home.
Everything, including an improved defense, seems to be pointing in Stroud’s favor.
He is the chalk for good reason. It’s hard to find reasons to bet against him beyond the randomness of the sport.
DOWN THE BOARD (SLIGHTLY)