The Kentucky Wildcats (3-0) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Nashville.
Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).
The Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 85.7% confidence.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 79.8% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Vanderbilt, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kentucky players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Devin Leary has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.55 Units / 106% ROI)
- Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Devin Leary has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Vanderbilt players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- AJ Swann has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Will Sheppard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jayden McGowan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- AJ Swann has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Patrick Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Kentucky is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.41% ROI
- Kentucky is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Kentucky is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Vanderbilt is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.4 Units / -100% ROI).
- Vanderbilt is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -17.39% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Kentucky is 6-3 (.667) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– tied for 39th-best in FBS; Average: .563
Kentucky is 12-4 (.632) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 29th-best in FBS; Average: .509
Kentucky is 13-8 (.619) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 20th-best in FBS; Average: .440
Kentucky is 13-4 (.684) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .540
Vanderbilt is 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419
Vanderbilt is 1-17 (.056) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450
Vanderbilt is 1-11 (.083) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .514
Vanderbilt is 1-15 (.062) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .398
Vanderbilt’s QBs has thrown for 1,194 passing yards in 4 games (298.5 YPG) this season — 28th-best among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 238.7 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt’s WRs has gained 1,044 yards on 66 receptions (15.8 YPR) this season — tied for 22nd-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for 12th-best among FBS defenses.