Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +11.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | +340 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -11.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | -450 |
Odds via'DraftKings.'Get up-to-the-minute'college football odds here.
By Tanner McGrath
Kentucky football has been in this situation before. Mark Stoops has been an underdog throughout his tenure with the Wildcats and has overcome every possible obstacle in rebuilding this program.
For example, Stoops is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU as an underdog this season. The Wildcats also went 2-0 ATS as a road dog last season. The Wildcats are 23-12-1 ATS as underdogs since 2016 with 15 outright upsets.
You don't want to fade Stoops when he's catching double digits.
Plus, there are advantages for Kentucky in this game.
Kentucky has a dominant rush defense (fifth in Success Rate Allowed) going up against a rush-heavy Tennessee offense (37th in Rush Rate). But the Wildcats are also excellent in coverage (14th in Pass Success Rate Allowed) and with their backs against the wall (sixth in Points Per Opportunity Allowed).
The Wildcats are also more disciplined. Kentucky is sixth in penalties per game while Tennessee is 129th. The Wildcats are 22nd in tackling while Tennessee is 46th.
And say what you want about Will Levis, but he can produce enough offense against Tennessee's 109th-ranked coverage unit to cover a big spread.
Our internal Action projections make this spread Tennessee -8.8. Kentucky with the points is the smart play on Saturday night.
By Mike Ianniello
Let's all take a moment together to have a nice big laugh that there are still idiots out there who think Levis will be a top-10 NFL draft pick.
HAHAHAHAHAHA.
So called “experts” see a 6-foot-3, 230-pound guy with a strong arm and don't actually watch the games. When you watch the games, it becomes clear that Levis just isn't that good at football.
In his career, he has 22 Big Time Throws and 24 Turnover Worthy Plays.
This season, he has just three Big Time Throws and six Turnover Worthy Plays. For comparison, his three Big Time Throws rank 14th in the SEC, tied with Vanderbilt's backup quarterback.
Levis has been able to pick on some of the smaller schools, but he has really struggled against SEC competition. This year, he has four touchdowns and two interceptions in three SEC games. Last year, he had 13 touchdowns with eight interceptions against conference opponents.
Despite his size and athleticism, he also isn't as mobile as people like to think he is. He has rushed for a whopping -49 rushing yards this season. He has been sacked 18 times this year, the second most in the SEC.
Even if you take out the sack yardage, he has still managed just 78 rushing yards all season, the fewest among any quarterback in the SEC.
On the other sideline will be Hendon Hooker, who is playing himself into a trip to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He is averaging 300 yards passing per game with 18 touchdowns and just one interception. He is completing over 70% of his passes, with an 11.9 average depth of target.
Hooker has the highest completion percentage in the country of any quarterback with an ADOT of at least 10 yards.
His best performances have come in the biggest games this year. He went 22-for-28 for 349 yards and two touchdowns against Florida and 21-for-30 for 385 yards and five touchdowns against Alabama.
Kentucky cannot keep up with this offense. The Vols are averaging 571.7 yards and 50.1 points per game, both the most in the country. They have cooked everybody this season and only appear to be getting better.
McGrath: I don't think this game is about Levis. Nobody denies Levis is on the same planet as Hooker, although there isn't a collegiate quarterback currently as talented as the Vols’ signal caller.
Instead, we need to ask if Hooker is worth 14 points to the spread compared to Levis.
I don't think he is.
Additionally, this is not a game that Hooker will thrive in. Not when Kentucky's defense is 11th in Standard Downs Success Rate and top-25 in defending Passing Downs Success Rate and Explosiveness.