Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Preview: The Betting Analysis
NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on February 11th at 6:30pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his Super Bowl betting analysis now!
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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info
Chiefs Defense vs 49ers Rushing Offense: Super Bowl Preview
One of the best indicators of RB success in college and in the NFL is yards-per-carry. As RB's age, that number typically declines. Anything close to 5.0 per carry is considered well above average.
Christian McCaffrey ran 5.4 per carry in the regular season, and is at 5.1 per carry in two playoff games. Unlike Baltimore, San Francisco figures to stick to the run game.
Brock Purdy was not much of a factor in the run game until last week, when he may have been the difference in the game. It's something KC will need to keep an eye on.
The Chiefs are one of the weaker teams vs. the run and will have their hands full in this game. I expect McCaffrey to run at least 16 times in this game, and San Francisco would be wise to control clock with a mixture of the run and pass.
Finally, Deebo Samuel will get some rushing touches as well. KC has plenty of speed on defense, and might match up well with the outside run, but Samuel helps to diversify the attack. Look for Deebo to have 3-4 carries in this game, but I do not expect any big runs.
Chiefs Rushing Offense vs 49ers Defense: Super Bowl Preview
RB Pacheco had 97 rush attempts in his last six regular season games, and another 63 attempts in three playoff games.
We often think of the Chiefs as a Mahomes-driven passing team, but the greater reliance on Pacheco has paid dividends. Pacheco ran 4.6 per carry in the regular season, and 4.0 per carry in the playoffs.
As documented in last week's article, the 49ers regressed defending the run in 2023. With that in mind, Mahomes won't have to do everything by himself, and I expect another 15+ carries for Pacheco.
I won't project him to have as dynamic an impact as McCaffrey, but as long as he is picking up 1st downs the result could be the same.
RB Edwards-Helaire is the next option. Running sparingly at 3.2 per carry during the regular season, he's 10-53 in the playoffs, adding four receptions.
His value lies more in giving Pacheco a rest as opposed to making a big difference, especially on the ground. As we've seen throughout the season, Mahomes is not afraid to take off and run with the ball.
San Francisco's LB's are collectively among the best in the NFL and will likely limit some of his scrambles, but it is wise to assume that he will have one splash rush result.
Chiefs Defense vs 49ers RBs and WRs: Super Bowl Preview
Along with McCaffrey, WR's Samuel and Aiyuk, plus TE Kittle are formidable options in the pass game. While the slightly injured Samuel has had the most playoff receptions as compared to Aiyuk (10 to 6), Aiyuk was targeted more (14 to 11).
Kittle's touches ebb and flow based on how often he is tasked to block, but he was targeted ten times, with six receptions.
The most noticeable trend last week was how the four playoff teams relied almost entirely on their stars to do the heavy lifting in the pass game. Given my scouting report on the Chiefs and their solid pass defense, I expect shorter routes from the WR's, as KC covers fairly well on deeper routes.
For me, TE Kittle is the X-factor. We'll see how much he is featured in the game plan but there's a path for him to be heavily utilized, especially as all the buzz is focused on the other TE, Travis Kelce.
Like I said a week ago, the 49ers would be wise to build up QB Purdy's confidence early with some safer, rhythm throws. The 49ers will want to keep Mahomes off the field, as we know what happens when he gets in rhythm.
I think they will do so with a mixture of runs and passes. My initial QB set is 21-33 for Purdy, for 239 yards. I do NOT see fringe WR's Conley or Jennings involved much unless there's an injury, but there will be some three WR sets.