Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 2-12-2023

It is the that time of year again, arguably the most anticipated professional sporting event in American culture: the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LVII to be crowned the champion of the National Football League. Kansas City comes into this contest after going going 14-3 in the regular season and then knocking off Jacksonville in the divisional round and Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game. They arrive having won seven straight games. The Eagles have reached Scottsdale, Arizona thanks to a 14-3 regular season as well and then victories over the New York Giants in the divisional round followed by a thumping of the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The Eagles have won three straight games and eight of their last ten. The opening kick, following a day's worth of pomp and circumstance, is scheduled for 6:30 PM EST.

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Well, here they are again America. The Kansas City Chiefs are back for their third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. The Chiefs have become the premier franchise in the NFL with five straight AFC Championship game appearances and one Super Bowl title in the last five years. The main reason for the Chiefs' success can be traced to one player, likely NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes lost his primary deep threat in the offseason, WR Tyreek Hill, but didn't miss a beat in throwing an NFL-best 41 touchdowns and 5,250 yards while completing 67% of his passes. Mahomes and the Chiefs were more methodical this season than in year's past, with 31 of his touchdown going for 10 yards or less, but no less effective. In the playoffs, despite an ankle injury, Mahomes has completed 69.9% of his passes, thrown for 521 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Mahomes continues to be motivated to erase the sting of the Super Bowl lo ss to Tampa two seasons ago.

“The win is amazing,” Mahomes said Monday at the Super Bowl's opening night. “It's one of the best moments of your entire life. You take away all the positives from that. But that loss, that stings. That motivates you for years. What it's done for me is it's motivated me to be back in this game again. I want to make sure that I can have that winning feeling and not that losing one because that losing feeling is one you'll never forget.”

The Chiefs got to this game thanks to a 14-3 season that led to the #1 seed in the AFC. They went on to defeat Jacksonville in the divisional round, the game in which Mahomes went down with the ankle injury before coming back to lead the Chiefs to a 27-20 win. In the AFC title game, the Chiefs avenged last year's AFC title loss to the Bengals with a thrilling 23-20 win over Cincinnati. The win was Mahomes first over the Bengals in his career.

Here's a look at some key stats for the Chiefs heading into Sunday. Kansas City comes in with the #1 scoring offense during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have the fifth scoring offense. The Chiefs were ranked 21st in rushing offense in the regular season while grading out to 9th in the playoffs. Mahomes and the Chiefs had the #1 passing offense during the regular season and that has continued in the playoffs. Kansas City was a bit sloppy with the football in the regular season, finishing just 13th in the NFL in turnover differential. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have been much more crisp with the third best turnover differential. With a less explosive offense this season, the Chiefs were in the red zone more frequently. They finished first in the NFL in red zone attempts this season. It didn't hurt the team's scoring as the Chiefs ranked second in the NFL in converting red zone appearances into touchdowns. The Chiefs had the fourth best scoring margin in the NFL.

Defensively, the Chiefs feature a number of rookies in key spots. They have gotten faster and more athletic, particularly in the secondary. They had the 15th ranked scoring defense during the regular season but that number improved to fourth in the playoffs. Against the run, the Chiefs finished the regular season ranked eighth this season and are eighth in the playoffs as well. With a young secondary, the Chiefs had some issues against the pass in the regular season, ranking 19th in the NFL. It has improved a bit in the playoffs with the Chiefs ranked sixth against the pass. While the Chiefs have thrived in the red zone offensively, the team has struggled to contain teams once they reach the red zone. Kansas City finished 30th in the NFL in allowing teams to convert red zone chances into touchdowns. In addition, they were just 21st in the NFL in red zone appearances allowed.

Key Injuries: The only concern for the Chiefs appears to be WR Kadarius Toney with ankle/hamstring issues. He has been limited in practice but one would think he'll be ready to go.

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