Here are the best Justin Fields NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds for Thursday's Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders matchup from our best sports betting apps.
Justin Fields exploded in Week 4, throwing for 335 yards and four touchdowns. The yardage was his best total of the season by 119, and his four touchdowns were more than he had thrown in his previous three games combined.
But he ran the ball just four times for 25 yards, his second-lowest rushing total of the season. Will Fields revert back to the player from Weeks 1 to 3 on Thursday night?
To further complement your Bears vs. Commanders predictions, we're also assessing this matchup with our Bears-Commanders prop picks and NFL props for Week 5.
Here are our best Justin Fields NFL player prop predictions for the Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders W eek 5 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Justin Fields NFL player prop predictions for Week 5
- Justin Fields Over 189.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ???
- Justin Fields Over 16.5 pass completions (-115 via bet365) ????
- Justin Fields Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ???
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Justin Fields player props
We were expecting a bit of an overcorrection after Fields' performance in Week 4. Instead, all of our best sportsbooks have set Fields' passing total under 200 yards. While that makes sense, the Over is the right play in this situation.
The Commanders' defense is allowing 244.3 passing yards per game. Facing Josh Dobbs in Week 1 when he was unfamiliar with the Arizona Cardinals' offense factors into that number heavily, though the team did give up just 218 yards to Josh Allen in a game the Bills dominated throughout.
The Commanders should be playing from ahead in this one, and their defense has allowed two 300-yard passers in 2023. Our Mike Spector still expects Chicago to cover in his Commanders-Bears prediction, but there's very little chance Fields produces a game similar to Week 4. Still, we like him to hit 200 yards like he's done three times in 2023 while playing from behind.
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Fields has been far from consistent when it comes to completing passes in 2023. He went 28-for-35 passing in Week 4, just one week after completing going 11-for-22. He finished 16-for-29 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 24-for-37 against the Green Bay Packers. While those numbers don't instill confidence, this total is very low at just 16.5.
The Commanders field the NFL's 12th-worst rushing defense, so perhaps Khalil Herbert gets more touches than usual. However, we firmly believe the Bears will be playing from behind, and then we're going to see Fields with the ball in his hands looking to make plays more often. Most of the plays he's tried to make in 2023 have come with his arm, as Fields has only attempted 28 carries through four weeks.
Make sure you shop around. Over 16.5 is very expensive at DraftKings (-135), and FanDuel is showing Over 17.5 for the same price that bet365 is offering 16.5 (-125).
Get in on this prop as soon as possible. FanDuel is alone among our best live betting sites while offering it at 45.5. Every other book is at 46.5, and the price is as high as -129 for the Over.
Fields has run the ball significantly fewer times in 2023 than during previous campaigns. However, he's not going to get much of a choice on Thursday. The Commanders are tied for seventh in the league while averaging 3.3 sacks per game. Fields has taken 17 sacks in 2023, so he's going to be under constant pressure. The only way he'll make it through this game is if he's willing to scramble.
Despite how little Fields has been running, he's actually topped this number twice in 2023. Additionally, he averaged 6.3 yards per carry in Week 4 and has put up over six yards per carry during two games in 2023. He should clear this number easily if he finishes the game with nine-plus carries.
Justin Fields player prop picks made 10/5/2023 at 9:36 a.m. ET.
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