The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills as we make our best Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has won three consecutive games against the New England Patriots. Over his career, he's averaging 220.9 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions per game against his AFC East rival. He has just two 300-yard passing games in nine tries against New England.
This season, Allen has thrown for 1,576 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He's coming off a very poor 169-yard passing performance against the New York Giants last Sunday night.
Check out other NFL Week 7 odds and lines and accompanying NFL Week 7 predictions. To complement our Bills vs. Patriots predictions, here are our best Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for the Buffalo Bills' Week 7 matchup against the New England Patriots (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for Week 7
- Josh Allen Under 250.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ???
- Josh Allen Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 via FanDuel) ???
- Josh Allen Under 25.5 rushing yards (-120 via BetMGM) ???
Josh Allen player props
The weather is going to be a serious issue in Foxborough on Sunday. There is an 80% chance of rain, and consistent winds of 20 mph or more are expected. Allen has certainly played games in bad weather throughout his career. However, the obstacle of high winds makes it hard to trust a Bills quarterback who has been far from great this season.
Allen has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his last three games, but he has thrown for fewer than 25 0 yards in three of his six matchups this year. Last week against the Giants, Allen threw for fewer than 200 yards for the first time this season. The Patriots have been a disaster defensively this season, but they're only allowing 217.3 passing yards per game.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has the added luxury of seeing Allen twice every season, which allows the Patriots to prepare for him in a way other teams can't. This number may seem low, but Allen may struggle to hit 200 passing yards in this game when you account for all factors.
Nearly every major sportsbook has Under 1.5 passing touchdowns listed with a price of -125 or worse. However, FanDuel is standing alone, favoring the Over and offering a great price for the Under.
Allen has thrown for at least two touchdowns in all but one game this season. However, in the last two weeks, Allen's second touchdown pass has come very late in the fourth quarter. That makes this prop much more of a coin flip than it seems if you're just box score watching.
For all the points the Patriots have allowed this season, they're allowing an average of exactly one passing touchdown per game. Allen can steal passing touchdowns from himself by running into the end zone. And if ball control becomes an issue in the foul weather, the Bills may play it safer close to the endzone, running the ball more than they usually do.
This is a very curious line. Perhaps we should be considering the Over because of how questionable this total feels. Still, we're playing the Under because nothing we have seen this season suggests we should do otherwise.
Allen has run for more than 25 yards twice this season. He hasn't topped 20 rushing yards in the last three weeks, even once. He's combined for 42 yards on 10 carries during that span.
Perhaps the weather will encourage Allen to run more, but the truth is, he hasn't looked to run the football much at all this season. He has just 22 carries in six games. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, but even if he runs the ball four times and hits his season average for yards per carry, he's still going to end up Under this number.
Josh Allen player prop picks made 10/20/2023 at 1:34 p.m. ET.
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