We make our top Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds, as the Cleveland Browns quarterback looks to keep his hot streak going on Thursday Night Football against the New York Jets.
Not many teams are lucky enough to sign a 38-year-old quarterback to their practice squad in November and be led to the playoffs by said signal-caller only a month later. But that's exactly what the Cleveland Browns (10-5) have managed to do with Joe Flacco, who makes his fifth start of the season on Thursday Night Football against his most recent employer, the New York Jets.
Flacco hasn't been perfect, but he's led the Browns to a 3-1 record through four December starts. He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,307) and touchdowns (10) during that span. Can he keep rolling against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Thursday evening?
As part of our NFL predicti ons for Week 17, and in addition to our Jets vs. Browns prediction and our Jets vs. Browns NFL player props, here are our best Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions for the Jets vs. Browns Week 17 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Joe Flacco NFL player prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Joe Flacco to throw an interception (-175 via BetMGM) ????
- Joe Flacco Under 230.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ???
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Joe Flacco player props
Look, nobody likes to bet anything with a short price. If you choose to ignore this wager entirely because of that, so be it. But don't conflate negative odds with negative value.
While Flacco has led the league in yards and touchdowns since taking over in Week 13, the big-armed QB also paces the field in interceptions (seven) and has been responsible for six turnover-worthy plays, tied for the fourth-most by any player in that stretch.
Some of that is sheer volume. While Flacco's turnover-worthy play rate (3.1%) ranks 11th among 22 players with at least 100 dropbacks in December, his 175 attempts are by far the most in the league over the last four weeks. Only 50.3% of them have been on target – the worst mark by any QB this season with at least four starts.
None of this is new for Flacco, who has thrown at least one interception in 14 of 21 starts (66.7%) – including all four this season – since leaving the Baltimore Ravens in 2019. Now he faces a Jets defense that ranks eighth in interceptions (14) and picked off two passes last week against the Washington Commanders.
Thi s prop is dealing as short as -190 at DraftKings, but I'd recommend betting this at -175 via BetMGM, which implies a 63.6% chance of cashing this ticket. I like our chances there.
Visit our Google News page and click “Follow” (?) for the latest odds, picks and news!
As we mentioned before, Flacco is leading the league in passing yards per game (326.8) since taking over in Week 13. He'll have a tough time keeping up that pace on Thursday against the best secondary in the NFL.
All four defenses that Flacco has faced this month rank 16th or worse in EPA/pass and 22nd or worse in total pass defense. Compare that to the Jets, who rank fifth in EPA/pass and second in pass defense (168.6 YPG) and have surrendered just 150 yards per game to opposing passers in December.
This defense is also plenty familiar with Flacco, having faced him in practice from 2020-22, and has the personnel to match up with red-hot receiver Amari Cooper on the outside. New York boasts two of the NFL's top-10 graded corners (min. 800 snaps) in Sauce Gardner (second) and D.J. Reed (10th), per PFF, with both ranking in the top six in fewest yards allowed.
Here's the list of QBs who have thrown for more than 230 yards against the Jets this season: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa. That's it. All four of those quarterbacks were favored at one point atop the NFL MVP odds this year, and they're all a tier (or three) above Flacco.
The only reason this rates as a three-star play is the aforementioned volume: Flacco has attempted 40-plus passes in all four starts this year, though his team was facing much inferior pass defenses then, and the Browns enter Thursday as touchdown favorites. Barring a crazy game script, this should cash.
Joe Flacco player prop picks made Tuesday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
Editor's note: Get ready for the launch of Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)