Our Jets vs. Browns parlay predictions based on the best NFL odds see Joe Flacco thriving despite the difficult matchup.
The New York Jets (6-9) boast one of the top pass defenses in the NFL entering this week's Thursday Night Football matchup with the Cleveland Browns (10-5). But the unit may still be no match for the Joe Flacco redemption arc.
Can Joe Cool guide his team to a home win as a heavy favorite to solidify the Browns' NFL playoff odds and keep them in the mix to win the Super Bowl?
Here are our best Jets vs. Browns parlay predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jets vs. Browns parlay for TNF
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Browns -7.5 (-105) ???
- Over 34.5 (-105) ?????
- Joe Flacco Over 233.5 passing yards (-115) ???
Combined odds: +449 via FanDuel
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SGP predictions for Jets vs. Browns
Trevor Siemian is inarguably an improvement over Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle at quarterback, but for the Jets to hang with Cleveland on Thursday night, the running game is an absolute necessity. After Breece Hall's eruption in last week's win over the Commanders, I see the running back taking a step back against the Browns' top-10 run defense.
Cleveland allows just a shade north of 100 rushing yards per game and it's a defense that plays its best football at home. The Browns are 10-5 ATS overall and a league-best 7-1 ATS at home this season.
We liked this number far better at -7 earlier in the day on Thursday, but Cleveland scoring anything close to its average total in four games under Joe Flacco (26.5 PPG) should provide room for the best home ATS team in the NFL to do its job once again.
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While I don't believe in Siemian's ability to guide the Jets to a close loss or outright win in this road matchup, I do think the Jets can contribute a double-digit scoring output to aid this tiny total Over.
Despite New York's numerous issues offensively, eight games involving the Jets have at least cleared this 34.5-point total on the season. Cleveland games have cleared this total 10 times on the year as the Browns have one of the NFL's highest rates to the Over (8-6-1) across a low-scoring environment this season.
Since Flacco took over the quarterbacking duties in Cleveland, Browns games have averaged 52 total points, with all four occasions clearing the 34.5 mark. Flacco's aggressive style lends to more points for both Cleveland and its opponents, suggesting this number should be in the upper-30s at a minimum.
I'm still not sure what we're doing here. Every week, I write that the sportsbooks should significantly raise Flacco's passing yardage total and every week they ignore me. This week, we're actually getting a lower total than the 246.5-yard number I wrote up last week for Flacco against the Texans.
That is, of course, because the Jets have the second-best pass defense in the league, allowing just 168.6 yards per game through the air. But Flacco has been relentless in attacking through the air, clearing the total in four straight games while exceeding 300 passing yards in each of his last three.
The Jets typically don't allow many passing yards due to how gettable the unit has been on the ground. Given the lack of success for Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt recently, I'm betting on the Browns sticking with the aerial assault despite the matchup tendencies of the opposing defense.
Although FanDuel has Flacco's total one yard higher than DraftKings, we prefer the FanDuel odds for this SGP, which is trading at +449 at FanDuel versus +420 at DK.
Jets-Browns SGP picks made Thursday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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