In our Jets-Browns NFL player prop picks for Week 17, we make our NFL picks while looking at the best sports betting apps to determine whether Amari Cooper will keep sizzling against a tough defense.
It's officially the year 2024 in a matter of days, and Joe Flacco is a savior for an NFL team.
That fact alone is enough to make you stare out a window for a while. But that's where the Browns find themselves with Flacco, who's been arguably their best quarterback during a trying season for the position.
The soon-to-be 39-year-old has quickly developed a particularly strong connection with two pass-catchers in Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Will that continue during Thursday Night Football against the New York Jets?
In addition to our Browns-Jets prediction, here are our best Jets-Browns NFL player props for Week 17 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jets vs. Browns NFL player props: Week 17
Amari Cooper is fresh off making history in several ways with his 265-yard performance in Week 16. He established a new Browns single-game receiving yards record, and his four games with 200-plus receiving yards are tied for the third-most in league history.
Cooper now faces a New York Jets team in shambles, but its defense remains threatening and among the league's best, especially against the pass. The Jets sit second while allowing a meager 168.1 passing yards per game.
While it's understandable that our best sports betting sites have accordingly given Cooper a low receiving yards total despite his record-breaking antics, there's been an overreaction to the matchup, resulting in value to pounce on early in the week.
Specifically, throw yourself at the price from DraftKings. Of our three best sportsbooks posting early-week player props, that's the only one featuring a line this low. DraftKings sits at 54.5, while Caesars is far higher at 60.5, and bet365 is offering 59.5.
Projections widely favor Cooper clearing all of those numbers, and therefore sailing past the DraftKings total. NumberFire sits at 66.7 yards, while ESPN is at 69.
The 2023 season has been a bit of a boom-or-bust campaign for Cooper, largely due to Cleveland's quarterback situation. He's posted six games with 40 or fewer yards, and five games with 100-plus yards.
But he's been targeted a whole lot since Flacco took over, including outings with 14 and 15 looks, resulting in 121.3 receiving yards over the four games. He could cash this Over based on that volume alone.
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The Jets' pass defense may indeed remain imposing despite the team giving up 58 points over the past two weeks. But there's one specific yet significant weakness: tight ends in the red zone.
New York is tied for the second-most touchdown passes allowed to the position in 2023 (eight). That comes even while ranking well for yardage against tight ends (eighth-best) and receptions allowed (11th-best).
And now the Jets will face a tight end in David Njoku who's playing at an all-galaxy level lately since Flacco took over under center.
The seven-year veteran has already established new single-season career highs in receiving yards (748 yards) and touchdowns (six) with two games remaining. Much of that damage has been done recently, too, as the Flacco-Njoku connection blossoms to the tune of 239 yards across the past three games.
The two have been magnetized in the red zone, with Njoku on the receiving end for four of the 10 touchdown passes Flacco has thrown. Njoku has been receiving a monstrous 83.3% of the Browns' red-zone looks.
The Browns also boast a stellar defense, and a unit that's been central to keeping the team's playoff hopes alive. But unlike the Jets, there isn't a weakness of any kind against tight ends.
The Browns have allowed the fewest receiving yards to the position, and it's not close. They sit at 468 yards, while the New England Patriots are a distant second at 592.
It's a unit that's suffocating for tight ends, and now Conklin is up next while getting throws from a journeyman in Trevor Siemian, who's making just his eighth start since 2017. Conklin has only narrowly been getting above this yardage total while a veraging 32.8 yards per game over the past six weeks, and an outlier 57-yard contest against the Houston Texans is elevating that number.
The Browns and their stifling defense are well-positioned to limit him, all while hounding a replacement-level backup.
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Jets-Browns NFL player prop picks made Tuesday at 12:11 p.m. ET.
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