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You've probably been tracking this one for weeks in the Monday Night Football odds. That's how highly anticipated the clash between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers is as Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up.
San Francisco's loss in last year's Super Bowl marked the second time it finished runner-up in the previous five years. My Jets vs. 49ers prediction, as part of our Week 1 NFL predictions, analyzes if the home team is ready to get the bad taste out of their mouths or if the Jets can soar to new heights in what they hope is Aaron Rodgers' first full healthy season under center.
With the uncertainty surrounding what Rodgers will look like after missing all but one drive last year, my player prop wager focuses on New York's talented running back, Breece Hall. Our Rodrigo Villagomez gets more into Rodgers in his Jets vs. 49ers player props.
Best Jets vs. 49ers picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Jets +4.5 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. 49ers ???
- Player prop: Breece Hall anytime touchdown scorer (+130 via FanDuel) ???
Jets vs. 49ers spread prediction: Monday Night Football
The 49ers had a tumultuous offseason, with tackle Trent Williams holding out, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk demanding a trade, and rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall landing on the NFI list after being shot in an attempted robbery.
The Jets were not prepared with a solid backup quarterback last season, and it bit them after Rodgers went down in the season opener.
New York's 37 combined Total QBR was the worst since 2016, yet its defense held up despite the offense's flaws. The Jets ranked first in yards per play allowed ( 4.6), second in passing yards per game allowed (168.3), and fourth in Total QBR allowed (47).
New York allowed the fourth-most sacks last season (64) and ranked 29th or worse in both Run Block and Pass Block Win Rate, making it the only team to rank bottom-four in both categories.
However, the Jets addressed the issue by adding Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses and bringing back Alijah Vera-Tucker from injury.
This is a three-star play despite all the unknowns about how both teams will look. Knowing that San Francisco covered just three of its 10 home games last year, the fourth-worst rate in the NFL, makes this play more confident.
BetMGM is the last of our best sports betting sites still offering the underdogs at +4.5 (New York is as low as +3.5 at -105 at FanDuel), and that is exactly where I am placing my $10 winning wager, which would pay out $18.33 if it cash es.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Jets vs. 49ers player prop
Hall bounced back in a big way from a season-ending injury two years ago. Last season, he ranked first in 50-yard touchdowns (three), first in 20-mph touches (seven), and second in scrimmage yards (1,585).
He did most of his damage after working off the rust from the first month of the season, totaling 1,333 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns while also seeing 85 targets out of the backfield over the final 13 games.
Hall now faces a 49ers defense that was third-worst in defensive rush SR and also lost key interior linemen in Javon Kinlaw (now with the Jets) and Arik Armstead.
The implied probability for Hall to score a touchdown is as high as 47.62% based on DraftKings' +110 odds, but I am getting $2 more on a winning $10 wager at FanDuel, where I would return $13 in profits compared to $11 at DraftKings' price.
Best odds: +130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Jets vs. 49ers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Jets vs. 49ers
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 82 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph NW
- Favorite: 49ers (-200 via BetMGM)
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