Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 286 (Can Maia Survive O'Neill at the O2?)

Maia vs O'Neill Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 286 – Main Card Women's Flyweight Bout
Jennifer Maia (20-9-1, 4 KOs) vs. Casey O'Neill (9-0, 3 KOs)
Date:'Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time:'This will be on the main card, which begins at 5 p.m. ET.
Venue:'O2 Arena – London, England
Coverage:'ESPN+, PPV

Maia vs O'Neill Odds & Prop Bets

Moneyline:
– Jennifer Maia: (+142)
– Casey O'Neill: (-184)

Method of Victory:
– Maia by KO/TKO: (+1500)
– Maia by Points: (+210)
– Maia by Submission: (+1200)
– O'Neill by KO/TKO: (+600)
– O'Neill by Points: (+125)
– O' Neill by Submission: (+850)

Maia vs O'Neill Prediction

After losing three times in four fights, Jennifer Maia got back into the win column with a unanimous decision victory over Maryna Moroz back in November. Maia hasn't won back-to-back fights in nearly four years and doing so will only be that much harder against the undefeated Casey O'Neill.

The 2021 Newcomer of the Year, O'Neill is off to a 4-0 start to her UFC run. She's destroyed the competition for the most part, finishing three opponents (two by TKO, one via submission) before tallying a split-decision win against Roxanne Modafferi in O'Neill&#39 ;s PPV debut at UFC 271.

As solid as Maia can be, I'm going with the undefeated fighter here. O'Neill has the striking advantage, averaging 8.65 significant strikes per minute (nearly five more than Maia) with 57% accuracy. Considering how Maia absorbs 4.35 per minute, she could be in serious trouble early on.

Furthermore, O'Neill is also the better grappler proven by her 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes. For reference, Maia has been taken down 10 times in her previous five fights.

With everything working against the underdog, back O'Neill to remain flawless.

Maia vs O'Neill Best Bet

With the odds being where they are, there's some decent value behind O'Neill at -184 on the moneyline. If you're looking for something even more playable, I recommend O'Neill by points at +125. After all, all but one of Maia's last 14 fights have gone the distance while 44.4% of O'Neill's fights have done so as well.

With Maia only having been finished twice in her career, it's much likelier that O'Neill wins this by points.