The Boston Celtics look to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Indiana Pacers, and we're offering our top Jayson Tatum player props predictions based on the best NBA odds for Saturday's Game 3.
While the Boston Celtics struggled in their Game 1 OT victory against the Indiana Pacers, they came back with a vengeance with a blowout win in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. They head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for Saturday's Game 3 matchup at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
With Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton banged up, the Celtics are a 7-point road favorite as their NBA championship odds are now as short as -210. However, NBA Finals MVP odds favorite-Jayson Tatum continues to be inconsistent in the playoffs.
Along with our Celtics vs. Pacers props, here are our best Jayson Tatum NBA player props predictions for Saturday's Celtics vs. Pacers matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jayson Tatum odds, player props
- Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 points (-106 via FanDuel) ????
- Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+100 via DraftKings) ????
- Jayson Tatum Over 10.5 rebounds (+124 via DraftKings) ???
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Much of the hate spewed towards Tatum comes from talking heads who expect him to put up video game numbers on a nightly basis. I think the crux of it all is the fact that he's dripping with talent, but is content to defer to teammates. It worked pretty well in Game 2 with Jaylen Brown scoring 40.
Tatum is one of the best all-around players in the NBA and the fact that he's not putting up 30 per game in the playoffs doesn't matter with such a talented team. The Celtics are 10-2 in the postseason, and Tatum has only scored Over 29.5 three times.
With Indiana's struggles, and Haliburton hurt, I suspect that Tatum once again won't be needing to put up huge numbers. These odds imply a 51.46% probability he'll hit the Under, according to our odds converter, with a $10 bet paying $9.43 profit.
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel
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This is a pure value play. Coming off a 1-for-7 night from behind the arc, I thought surely the odds on this prop would be too short to justify. Yet, it's even money for Tatum to hit less than three 3-pointers against a Pacers team that allowed the fewest per game this season (10.7).
While Indiana's defense is stronger on the perimeter, it's weak inside, which is where Tatum has found mismatches early in this series. Given his shooting woes, I expect he'll look to win inside the arc in Game 3, rather than continue to try to break his shooting slump.
He's hitting just 26.6% of his threes in the postseason and averaging 1.8 makes per game. Tatum's only hit Over 2.5 threes in one playoff game thus far. These odds imply a 50% probability he hits the Under with a $10 bet paying out $20.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings
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The length off these odds are jaw-dropping. It seems like an overreaction after Tatum's six-rebound performance in Game 2. He's been bringing down boards as frequently as Tony Hawk breaks them, with seven games of Over 10.5 rebounds in the playoffs.
Tatum's averaging 10.2 rebounds per game in the postseason and brought in 12 in Game 1 against the Pacers. Indiana is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 28th in rebounds per game (41.5) and giving up the sixth-most offensive rebounds (11.0).
During the regular season, power forwards averaged 10.41 rebounds per game against the Pacers. This same prop was minus-money for the first two games of the series, and while the odds only imply a 44.64% probability he hits the Over, a $10 bet pays a $12.40 profit.
Best odds: +124 via DraftKings
Jayson Tatum player props picks made Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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