Jared Goff looks to keep the Detroit Lions' magical season alive with a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we offer our best Jared Goff NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw for 277 yards and one touchdown against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams, in Detroit's first playoff victory in 32 years. His performance helped snap the Lions' streak of most consecutive playoff losses (nine) from 1991 to 2016.
Goff also became the first quarterback to win a playoff game against a team for which he also won a playoff game. Detroit hasn't won multiple playoff games in the same season since 1957.
The Lions face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's the only one in the NFC to reach the playoffs each of the previous four seasons. Tampa Bay punched its ticket to the Divisional Round with an emphatic 32-9 home win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Goff is opposed by Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield, which means this is a battle of two former No. 1 overall draft picks who are no longer with the teams that drafted them.
As part of all of our NFL Divisional Round predictions, and in addition to our Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction and Buccaneers vs. Lions player props, here are our best Jared Goff NFL player prop predictions for the Buccaneers vs. Lions Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jared Goff NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round
- Jared Goff Over 277.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???
- Jared Goff Under 0.5 interceptions (+115 via bet365) ????
- Jared Goff most passing yards (-156 via FanDuel) ???
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Jared Goff player props
Goff quarterbacks a Lions offense that ranks in the top five in yards per play, scoring, passing yards, and rushing yards. And though Detroit has a balanced offense statistically, it is going up against a defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game since Week 14. Therefore, we expect a pass-heavy game plan from Dan Campbell and the Lions' coaching staff.
Goff has a high floor for passing yardage when playing indoors, especially at home, where he has thrown for 277 or more yards in four straight home games. He looks to build off an 82.7 PFF passing grade on Wild Card Weekend, which ranked fourth-best among all quarterbacks.
We are making this only a three-star play, as we are slightly fearful that oddsmakers inflated this line based on the 353-yard performance he turned in against the Buccaneers in Week 6.
However, those statistics are slightly skewed because they did not have running back Jahmyr Gibbs available in that game, and leading rusher David Montgomery left the game early with an injury after just six carries. Thus, the Lions practically abandoned the running game even with a lead, and finished with 44 pass attempts to 22 runs.
Most of our other best sports betting apps offer an O/U of 281.5 passing yards, and while we would pass on the Over at that number, we are happy to head to FanDuel for betting value on this total.
The Buccaneers are a blitz-happy defense, sending extra rushers on 40% of dropbacks in the regular season, the third-highest rate in the league. However, if last week's game against the Rams is any indication, the pressure will not rattle Goff.
According to ESPN's Field Yates, Goff went 22-for-22 for 277 yards and one touchdown when not pressured against the Rams, which set a playoff record for most attempts without an incompletion since ESPN began tracking pressures in 2009.
Goff's numbers, including last week against the blitz this season, are off the charts. He ranks third in yards per dropback (7.4), tied for third in passing touchdowns (13), and fourth in completion percentage (67%).
Goff did not throw an interception in Week 6 against the Buccaneers despite attempting 44 passes (tied for his second-most this season), and it is a steal to get plus-money odds for him to play clean football once again, especially with this game being at home.
BetMGM and bet365 offer the best price for this wager among our best sports betting sites, as Caesars is slightly lower at +110.
For our third wager, we were deciding between backing this play or the Over on Goff's 1.5 passing touchdowns, but the latter has similarly steep odds (-148 at FanDuel is the best price), and we fear Detroit will use David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs when in close, as the duo recorded 25 rushing touchdowns this season. Thus, all we need to cash this wager is for Goff to throw for more yards than Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield has been hot of late, ranking in the top eight among all qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and yards per attempt since Week 14. However, Goff's sample size of success is much larger, ranking sixth in passing yards per game all season.
This is a three-star play, as Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has at least two sacks in three straight games and is coming off a career-high seven pressures against the Rams. Thus, we expect Detroit to more consistently generate pressure with its front four compared to Tampa Bay, which will allow the Lions to drop more defenders in coverage.
In addition, according to Will Burchfield, Goff had a 108.9 passer rating when targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown this season. By comparison, Patrick Mahomes had a 109.6 passer rating over two MVP seasons. Thus, we trust the Goff-St. Brown duo more than Mayfield's connection with any of his receivers.
Jared Goff player prop picks made Saturday at 6:57 a.m. ET.
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