Free Daily NCAA Lock Pick, Tuesday October 17th: Southern Mississippi vs South Alabama 7:30pmET
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The undefeated James Madison Dukes (6-0 SU; 4-2 ATS) are looking to get to 4-0 SU in Sun Belt play this week with a win, something that won't come easy on the road against the Marshall Thundering Herd (4-2 SU; 2-4 ATS).
The Dukes have won nine straight games dating back to last season, and a 66% ATS clip during that run (6-3 ATS) has kept their backers very happy every two of three weeks. Quick turnaround games as road chalk can be tricky though, and with James Madison already 4-0 SU in one-score games this year, you can't help but wonder how long that record in tight games can last.
Marshall is undefeated at home this year (3-0 SU; 1-2 ATS), and this is the first time they'll be catching points at this venue. The quick turnaround doesn't do the Thundering Herd any favors either, but not having to travel and coming off a blowout loss (41-24 at Georgia State) where they were price d very similarly (+2 underdogs), getting right back out on the football field may not be a bad thing.
Revenge is likely a point that gets brought up a bunch for the Dukes this week, as last year's meeting between these two at JMU ended with Marshall winning 26-12 as 10-point road underdogs. The Dukes went to Louisville the following week and fell 34-10, but they haven't lost since, and without question the Dukes players haven't forgotten about that Marshall game last season.
It had started out well for JMU, going up 12-2 after the first quarter, with Marshall's two points coming on a returned missed XP by the Dukes. James Madison wouldn't score again though, as four interceptions thrown by Dukes QB Billy Atkins on a dismal 13-for-35 throwing halted numerous drives for James Madison. The turnovers by Atkins also negated the three turnovers JMU's defense forced, as it was a rough one from top to bottom for the Dukes.
This year should be different though, as Dukes QB Jordan McCloud comes into this Marshall game having thrown 14 TD's to just 3 INT's and his 9.2 Yards per Pass Attempt is 17th best in the country. He is the arm behind a Dukes offense that ranks 24th in Points per Game (33.8), 18th in Points per Play (0.509) and has a 90% Red Zone Scoring Percentage. This James Madison offense has also done all of that despite ranking near the bottom of the country – 127th – in Third Down Conversion Percentage (27.27%). Who needs third down when you are JMU.
However, this week they go up against a Marshall defense that ranks 6th in the country in Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage (28.7%) and 15th in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Percentage (30%). This Thundering Herd defense has below average defensive numbers basically across the board this year, but they have elite at getting off the field when they can. It's Marshall's pass defense that takes charge most of the time, sitting 11th in Opponent Yards per Pass (5.8) that same category that McCloud has excelled in so far.
It should make for a very interesting chess match when JMU's offense is out on the field, and how a bettor believes that confrontation will go – especially on third down – is going to shape a lot of their perspective on which side to back.
The good news for those leaning towards James Madison, the Dukes are a run-first team with 54.22% of their plays runs, and the Thundering Herd can be torched on the ground. Marshall allows 6.0 Opponent Yards per Rush, good for 130th in the country – and that's nearly double what JMU produces themselves – 3.8 Yards per Rush. If the Dukes can have success running the ball, avoiding third and longs in the process, they should be able to return the favor from last year's meeting.
Free Daily NCAA Lock Pick, Tuesday October 17th: Southern Mississippi vs South Alabama 7:30pmET CLICK TO SEE PICK NOW