The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
- Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (JAC) |
17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) |
74.5 -115 | 74.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) |
55.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (JAC) |
47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) |
15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| CJ Stroud (HOU) |
8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Jaguars are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -100% ROI
- Jaguars are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Jaguars are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI).
- Texans are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 12.07% ROI
- Texans are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Texans are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Jaguars are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
The Jaguars were undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Jaguars were 3-1 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Jaguars were 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .359.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans are 8-3 (.727) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 241.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 12-5 (.706) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 34 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged just 2.2 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 9-3 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have thrown for 5,379 passing yards in 20 games (269.0 YPG) since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 241.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.