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The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars for the first of two Monday Night Football games on the Week 3 slate.
- Our Jaguars vs. Bills prediction breaks down why Jacksonville is undervalued as a 5.5-point underdog based on the Monday Night Football odds
- Teams that start 0-3 have missed the playoffs 98% of the time in the Super Bowl era, so a loss would be crippling to the Jaguars' NFL playoff odds
- Given Travis Lawrence's struggles this year, we're focusing on the Jaguars' running game
This showdown nearly wraps up our NFL Week 3 predictions, capping off an exciting slate.
Best Jaguars vs. Bills picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Jaguars +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Bills ???
- Player prop: Travis Etienne anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via FanDuel) ???
Jaguars vs. Bills spread prediction: Monday Night Football
The Bills are 2-0 and Josh Allen has the NFL's third-highest QBR (84), so many have been quick to forget how inexperienced Buffalo's receiving corps was entering the season after getting rid of Stefon Diggs.
Buffalo's passing game has been very much a committee approach, as Allen has completed passes to 10 different receivers (tied for the second-most in the league).
However, he is averaging fewer than five air yards per completion (would be a career low) as the short passing game has taken over. That is none the more evidenced by Khalil Shakir averaging 6.6 air yards per target and being targeted on 19% of his routes.
Thus, the short passing game has been effective because of Buffalo's elite running game, but I am not sure how sustainable that is going forward.
Another reason for Buffalo's success is Allen has taken much better care of the football. He did lose a fumble in Week 1 but has made it through the first two weeks without an interception for the first time since 2020.
However, Allen has never started a season without an interception through the first three games, so the player who leads the league in turnovers over the last two seasons should start to see some regression in that category.
The Bills' defensive depth took a hit this week when starting linebacker Terrell Bernard and slot cornerback Taron Johnson were ruled out with injuries.
In last year's 25-20 loss in London to the Jaguars, Bernard led the team with 16 tackles (eight solo) and Johnson pitched in three tackles and a quarterback hit.
Meanwhile, I expect the Jaguars to ramp up the pressure on Allen this week. The Jaguars had two players last year with double-digit sacks, and Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker's 27.5 combined sacks were the most by a pair of teammates in 2023.
This is a three-star play, as winless teams are 193-135-5 ATS as road underdogs, good for a 59% cover rate.
BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of +5.5, and the spread is as low as +4.5 at FanDuel. Thus, I am taking advantage of the best number at BetMGM at the standard -110 juice, as a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Jaguars vs. Bills player prop
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The Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
James Conner made the most of his 83 scrimmage yards by finding the endzone against Buffalo in Week 1, while Dolphins running back De'Von Achane was Miami's only source of offense against the Bills last week, totaling 165 scrimmage yards and scoring the team's only touchdown.
Etienne needs two rushing touchdowns to join Maurice Jones-Drew (54) and Fred Taylor (32) as only players in Jaguars history with 20-plus rushing touchdowns before age 26.
Considering Buffalo's defense ranks in the top seven in passer rating and yards per attempt allowed, that should force the Jaguars to lean on the running game more, while Etienne is a capable enough receiver (seven targets are tied for third-most on the team) to find the endzone via the passing game if necessary.
A winning $10 wager would net $11 in profits.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Jaguars vs. Bills odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Jaguars vs. Bills
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 68 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph SE
- Favorite: Bills (-250 via BetMGM)
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