Major League Baseball's No. 1 prospect is officially in the big leagues with the Baltimore Orioles, and we're looking at Jackson Holliday's odds and our top picks for the star infielder.
The Baltimore Orioles sent a jolt through the organization on April 10 when they called up 2022 first overall pick and MLB's No. 1 prospect, Jackson Holliday.
Baltimore is one of the favorites in the World Series odds, but its top-10 offense from 2023 has thus far disappointed, as Orioles hitters have combined to record the 18th-best wRC+ in the majors this season.
Holliday should be just what the doctor ordered and provide a spark at the bottom of the Orioles' lineup, setting the table for their MLB MVP odds contenders, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.
The 20-year-old was the preseason favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year but fell to the third spot on the oddsboard when he started the season in the minors. However, he played just 10 games in Triple-A and can make up a ton of ground in a hurry.
Let's take a look at those MLB Rookie of the Year odds and the other futures markets Holliday's arrival is set to affect.
Here are our best Jackson Holliday odds, predictions, and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jackson Holliday props for 2024
(AL Rookie of the Year odds as of April 10; see our full look at the MLB Rookie of the Year Odds)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | +225 | +260 ?? | +240 | +210 ?? | +225 |
| Evan Carter | +310 ?? | +400 | +375 | +475 ?? | +350 |
| Jackson Holliday | +320 | +300 | +340 | +250 ?? | +350 ?? |
| Colton Cowser | +1000 ?? | +2000 ?? | +1200 | +1300 | +1800 |
| Colt Keith | +1200 | +2000 ?? | +1100 ?? | +1700 | +1500 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | +1200 ?? | +2000 | +1500 | +2300 ?? | +1800 |
| Junior Caminero | +1500 ?? | +3500 ?? | +1800 | +2200 | +2800 |
| Parker Meadows | +2000 | +2500 ?? | +2000 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Wilyer Abreu | +2500 | N/A | +1500 ?? | +2500 | +2500 |
| Nolan Schanuel | +3000 | +4500 ?? | +4000 | +3000 | +3000 |
Holliday was the preseason favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, but he was leapfrogged by two Texas Rangers youngsters when the Orioles announced the 2022 first overall pick would begin the season in Triple-A.
(Before we get any deeper into the Rookie of the Year odds, though, let's just take a second to appreciate the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. Led by Holliday and fellow top prospect Heston Kjerstad, the Tides got off to a 7-3 start to the season thanks to a whopping 102 runs scored.)
Needless to say, Holliday torched minor-league pitching. He owned a .333/.482/.595 slash line and hit two home runs across 56 plate appearances. But perhaps the most impressive stat from his brief Triple-A stint this season was his 21.4% walk rate compared to his 14.3% strikeout rate.
Holliday will take those elite on-base skills to the majors, and he'll initially s erve as the Orioles' No. 9 hitter. However, it's entirely possible he gets moved up to the leadoff spot before long so he can properly set the table for Henderson and Rutschman at the beginning of games.
If Holliday can get on base at a good clip in the majors, he will quickly become the outright favorite in this market again. And if he's moved up the order and given a chance to score roughly 100 runs, he'll likely be crowned AL Rookie of the Year.
Orioles 2024 futures odds
(World Series odds as of April 10)
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +310 | +320 ?? | +310 | +300 | +300 |
| Braves | +400 ?? | +500 | +475 | +525 ?? | +450 |
| Yankees | +750 | +850 | +850 | +800 | +600 ?? |
| Astros | +950 | +750 | +900 | +675 ?? | +1000 ?? |
| Orioles | +1300 | +1700 ?? | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Rangers | +1500 | +1300 | +1400 | +1500 | +1100 ?? |
| Phillies | +1500 | +1300 | +1300 | +1800 ?? | +1400 |
| Mariners | +2200 | +2300 | +2200 | +2000 ?? | +3000 ?? |
| Blue Jays | +2200 | +2600 ?? | +2500 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Cubs | +2500 | +3500 | +3500 | +1800 ?? | +2800 |
Though Holliday's eventual arrival was already baked into the Orioles' World Series odds, FanDuel's +1700 is looking especially enticing now that he's up this early.
The reason I like this bet more than I did only a few days ago is that Holliday's early arrival should give the team much more time to gel. Additionally, it gives Orioles manager Brandon Hyde more time to tinker with his lineup in preparation for more meaningful gammes and the postseason.
Holliday is set to make his regular-season debut out of the nine-hole in the order, but that won't last forever. And perhaps the leadoff spot won't be where he's best suited, either. The benefit of calling him up now is that the Orioles have plenty of time to work out those kinks.
Another reason to like these +1700 odds is simply that the Orioles are likely better than they indicate. We see that's the case based on the prices at all of our other best sports betting sites.
These odds will likely shorten if Baltimore gets hot, while FanDuel's price didn't really move immediately following the news of Holliday's arrival. That makes this the perfect time to buy.
(MLB MVP odds as of April 10)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +400 | +330 ?? | +375 | +400 | +350 |
| Aaron Judge | +600 | +700 ?? | +650 | +650 | +600 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +700 | +1800 ?? | +1200 | +550 ?? | +1600 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +950 | +1100 ?? | +900 | +800 ?? | +1000 |
| Mike Trout | +1200 | +1200 | +1300 ?? | +1200 | +1200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +1300 ?? | +1200 | +1200 | +600 ?? | +1100 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +1300 | +1800 ?? | +1500 | +1200 ?? | +1600 |
| Corey Seager | +1300 | +1400 ?? | +1100 ?? | +1300 | +1200 |
| Adley Rutschman | +1800 ?? | +2500 ?? | +2200 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +1800 ?? | +2900 ?? | +2000 | +2400 | +2500 |
Holliday's arrival to the bigs won't just affect his own futures markets, though. He plays alongside two AL MVP contenders, and his ability to get on base can help each of their cases.
As it stands, 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson is the Orioles' leadoff hitter, and he's already put up respectable numbers despite the fact that Ramon Urias and his .091/.130/.091 slash line regularly hit in the No. 9 spot. Henderson now gets to hit behind Holliday, who's projected to record an on-base percentage hovering around .355 this season (and that may even be selling him short).
Rutschman will benefit similarly as the team's No. 2 hitter, and his relatively underwhelming counting stats were one of the big factors holding him back from truly contending in the 2023 AL MVP race. If the superstar catcher can combine his trademark elite defense with 100-plus runs and 100-plus RBIs, he could m ake some real noise in this market.
Both players have enticing prices via FanDuel, with Henderson trading at +1800 and Rutschman priced at +2500.
(AL Cy Young Award Odds as of April 10)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | +550 ?? | +420 ?? | +450 | +450 | +500 |
| Tarik Skubal | +650 ?? | +600 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Cole Ragans | +800 | +850 | +900 ?? | +700 ?? | +800 |
| Luis Castillo | +900 ?? | +1300 | +1100 | +1200 | +1300 |
| George Kirby | +1000 | +2400 ?? | +1800 | +1000 | +2500 |
| Framber Valdez | +1000 ?? | +3500 | +3500 | +1600 | +2000 |
| Pablo Lopez | +1300 ?? | +850 | +900 | +800 ?? | +1100 |
| Kevin Gausman | +1500 | +1700 | +1100 ?? | +1800 ?? | +1600 |
| Logan Gilbert | +1800 ?? | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | +1800 ?? | +1600 | +1600 | +1400 ?? | +1600 |
OK, you're probably wondering how the heck Holliday's arrival could possibly alter the Cy Young for either of Baltimore's contending starters. Well, I'll tell you how.
Corbin Burnes, who serves as the favorite in the AL, relies heavily on his ability to induce weak contact and, more specifically, ground balls. The player Holliday will replace, Urias, has been a minus-defender for essentially his entire career. Now, Burnes will have a young, athletic second baseman playing behind him.
Along with Holliday's ability to save some would-be base hits via his range and to turn double plays with Henderson, his bat should put Orioles pitchers in a better position to rack up more wins.
Wins are a bit of a forgotten stat when it comes to Cy Young grading, as most voters have recognized that they're barely tied to an individual pitcher's performance. However, they can serve as somewhat of an unofficial tiebreaker if the race is tight toward the end of the season.
As it stands, Burnes' biggest competition on the Cy Young oddsboard appears to be Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal and Kansas City Royals southpaw Cole Ragans. The latter will surely struggle to record too many wins, as his 0-1 record through three starts suggests. The Royals simply aren't good enough to put him in a position to finish with a total of around 15 wins. Skubal is in a similar spot, though the Tigers are expected to perform much better this year than in seasons past.
The moral of the story is that good players make a team better (go figure). Holliday helps not only his own cause – and the cause of those bettors who back him – but those of his teammates, too.
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