Typically, when a team that won a league championship wins a league-high 85% of its games the following season to earn home-court advantage in the championship round, that team being a -220 favorite to repeat wouldn't warrant a second look.
But when that team is the Las Vegas Aces, and its championship round opponent is the New York Liberty, common wisdom may not be so wise.
The two superteams split their regular-season series, winning two games apiece. But that doesn't take into account the Liberty's 82-63 annihilation of the Aces in Las Vegas to claim the Commissioner's Cup on Aug. 15. That result came just nine days after an even more thorough 99-61 trouncing in Brooklyn. Aces star A'Ja Wilson scored just nine points in each of those losses (on combined 4-24 shooting from the field), marking two of the three times all season she was held to single digits.
In short, New York's towering frontcourt duo of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are Wilson's kryptonite, and she'll have to be more than Clark Kent for the Aces to successfully defend their title.'
“The Aces don’t match up well with the Liberty,” veteran Vegas bookmaker and astute WNBA observer Robert Walker told Sports Handle. “Most importantly, they give A’ja a tough time. If Jones stays out of foul trouble and Breanna stays out of foul trouble, A’ja struggles with these two. They’re a current MVP and a former MVP.”
'The value is with the Liberty'
Sportsbooks think Wilson – herself a former MVP – will get the job done, with odds ranging from -185 (SuperBook) to -220 (FanDuel) for the Aces to win the series. Wilson is a -175 favorite over Stewart (3/1) at FanDuel to be named Finals MVP, but it's telling that more bets (18% for Stewart to 11% for Wilson), if not more handle (36% for Wilson, 25% for Stewart), had been placed on New York's leading scorer to walk away with the individual hardware as of Thursday.
More interesting still, while FanDuel has installed the Aces as a 4.5-point favorite in Sunday's Game 1, the sportsbook has taken far more moneyline (-205 for Las Vegas, +172 for New York) action on the Liberty to steal a road win. As of Thursday, 62% of all moneyline bets and 58% of the corresponding Game 1 handle was on New York.
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“I think it's gonna be a tough series for the Aces,” said Walker. “I think the frontcourt for the Liberty is stronger and the backcourt is interesting. I think if [Liberty point guard Courtney] Vandersloot plays well, it’s pretty close to even. The way they played against each other, it’s hard for me to believe the Aces are a 2/1 favorite.
“Nobody’s saying the Aces shouldn’t be the favorite; it’s just how big a favorite should they be? The value is with the Liberty. Both teams are dynamite. The Liberty got better as the season progressed and I think these guys are pick’em with home-court taken out of the equation.”
For what it's worth, Walker attends nearly every Aces home game and considers himself a fan, but he volunteered that he grabbed a Liberty championship futures ticket a while back at +250.
Breakthrough WNBA betting year
Aces believers looking for value in the Finals MVP market might want to take a hard look at the woman who walked off with that trophy last year, Vegas point guard Chelsea Gray. BetMGM has her at a juicy 30/1 (level with teammate Jackie Young) to repeat, with BetMGM trader Seamus Magee explaining, “Having the last two [regular-season] MVPs playing gives others longer odds.”
Regardless of who does what, Magee anticipates this to be the most wagered-on WNBA Finals in league history, with a 20-30% spike from last year expected. He chalks this potential bump up to two high-profile favorites making the Finals, as well as the best-of-five schedule featuring three games (if necessary) that aren't in conflict with NFL action.
During the regular season, BetMGM saw a 27% increase in the number of active WNBA bettors, while FanDuel saw its WNBA handle grow by 101% and its bet count soar by 163%.'
Moreover, the number of first-time WNBA bettors at FanDuel was up 87% year-over-year, and the sportsbook had 66 games exceed a handle of $1 million. In 2022, only seven games surpassed that threshold.