On Tuesday night in Texas, Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes will become just the fifth rookie pitcher in Major League Baseball history to start an All-Star Game.
Since being called up to the bigs two months ago, the No. 1 draft pick out of Louisiana State University has been unbeatable. In fact, he’s 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA through 11 starts. Regularly hitting 100 mph on the radar gun with a fastball that moves, he's posted 89 strikeouts over 66 1/3 innings pitched, and pitched seven innings of no-hit ball in his final start before the break on Thursday.
Throw in the mustachioed fireballer's high-profile romance with LSU gymnast and social-media star Livvy Dunne, and it's fair to ask whether Skenes is morphing into MLB's version of Caitlin Clark.
Like Clark has been at various points this season, the 22-year-old Skenes is a runaway favorite to be named National League Rookie of the Year, boasting -1100 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. (His closest rival is Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill at +550.) More interesting, however, is Skenes’ quest to become only the second rookie in major-league history – the other being Fernando Valenzuela, who also started the All-Star Game his first year out – to win the NL Cy Young Award.
Odds are it will be tough sledding. The two favorites for the award, Atlanta's Chris Sale (+125) and Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler (+165), are each veteran hurlers on superior teams who boast identical 2.70 ERAs and were on Opening Day rosters. Sale is 13-3 with 140 strikeouts over 110 innings, while Wheeler is 10-4 with 126 strikeouts over 116 2/3 innings.
While those two will be tough to supplant, Skenes holds plenty of value at 5/1 due to his unicorn status and rising profile. There might not be much on the line in the All-Star Game (home field advantage in the World Series no longer rides on the outcome), but it's still quite a stage on which to make an impression.
Will Home Field Help Garcia in HR Derby?
Globe Life Field, home of the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers, is playing host to all of this year's All-Star festivities, including Monday night's Home Run Derby. And it just so happens that Rangers’ slugger Adolis Garcia is among the eight contestants.
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Will the comfort of swinging for the fences at home make Garcia the favorite to swat the most dingers? Not quite, but bookmakers at America's major mobile betting apps certainly think he has a shot, as he's the fifth favorite at FanDuel with +480 odds.
The sportsbook expects it to be tight at the top, with two-time champ Pete Alonso of the New York Mets favored at odds of +280. Sandwiched between Garcia and Alonso are Atlanta DH Marcell Ozuna (+380), Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (+430), and Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (+470).
Witt presents a fairly intriguing case. While his 15 homers thus far are the second lowest in the field, ahead of only Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, he's mashed the longest four-bagger at 468 feet, which helps explain why FanDuel has him as a +260 favorite to hit a ball the furthest in the Derby.
To that end, the over/under on longest homer is 480.5 feet.'
If you like the chalk in the Derby, consider betting FanDuel's exacta options. A prediction of Alonso and Ozuna to make the final pairing was priced at 7/1 on Monday, while layering a bet on one to beat the other was offered at 15/1.
It's worth noting that the rules of this year's Derby have been altered to allow for a slightly more leisurely pace, theoretically reducing the risk of injury. In the first two rounds, batters will either face 40 pitches or a full allotment of three minutes to complete the round. For the finals, batters will either face 27 pitches or two minutes to finish the plate appearance.'
Last year, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, who’s in the midst of a down year, set the contest record for homers in a single round with 41.