Iowa and Auburn meet in the first round of March Madness on Thursday in a battle of the eight and nine seeds, respectively, in the Midwest region. Read on for our best Iowa vs. Auburn predictions based on the top NCAAB odds.
Iowa (19-13) was one of 14 Division 1 teams to average more than 80 points per game this year. But in a neutral site in the NCAA Tournament, will the Hawkeyes' tendency for high-scoring matchups continue against an Auburn (20-12) team that experienced plenty of low-scoring affairs during the campaign?
Here is our best Iowa vs. Auburn prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Iowa vs. Auburn odds
Iowa vs. Auburn prediction
Iowa averaged 80.2 points per game as an offense and ranked an NCAAB third in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Coupled with a top 75 adjusted tempo and a defense that ranked outside the top 150 in efficiency, that led to Hawkeyes contests going 19-13 on Overs this year. But the bulk of that scoring came in home games where Iowa went 13-4 on Overs.
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That trend makes sense considering Iowa ranked college basketball's second in home scoring at a whopping 89.8 PPG. Away from home, though, Iowa's scoring average plummeted to 69.8 PPG. Meanwhile, all four of Iowa's neutral site matchups stayed Under the total.
Auburn ranked in the top half of Division 1 in scoring average at 72.7 PPG and the Tigers also scored nearly five fewer PPG away from their home arena. Although Auburn matched Iowa in going 19-13 on Overs this season, its game total only exceeded 152.5 points in regulation on four occasions all year. This number seems out of whack for a game involving a Tigers team that boasts KenPom's 29th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Iowa vs. Auburn best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 152.5 | Under 151.5 | Under 151.5 | Under 152 | Under 152 |
| -110 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
BetMGM is the only sportsbook offering odds better than -110, but to play those, you'd have to accept a lesser number of 151.5. FanDuel offers the same line with less attractive odds, so Under bettors can dismiss that book for this wager.
DraftKings is a clear favorite for Under backers, as it offers the same standard -110 odds as Caesars and PointsBet but at a more favorable 152.5 line. We'll play the Under as long as the number remains at 150.5 or above, but the recommendation would reduce to three stars at 151.5.
Iowa vs. Auburn odds analysis
Auburn opened as a 1.5-point favorite and remains in that spot at some of our best sports books while moving to -1 at others. The consensus line as of Thursday afternoon is Auburn -1.5 with the Tigers drawing 54% of the support from bettors.
The total opened at 151.5 and remained there at some books while moving to 152.5 at others. Roughly 55% of wagers on the total are on the Under as of Thursday afternoon.
Iowa vs. Auburn game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 6:50 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL
Iowa-Auburn pick made 3/14/2023 at 6:02 p.m. ET.
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