The top two teams in the Big 12 meet for the conference tournament championship as we offer our best Iowa State vs. Houston prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
The Big 12 Tournament is one of the few conferences that is pitting its top two teams against one another in the final, and is the only league that had two top-seven AP-ranked teams to begin conference play.
The Iowa State Cyclones and Houston Cougars have combined to win 17 of their last 18 games, with Houston owning the nation's third-longest active winning streak at 11 games. This has the Cougars sitting pretty in the March Madness odds and Final Four odds heading into Saturday's championship.
After splitting the two regular-season meetings, something has to give, as neither team has lost twice to the same opponent this year.
As part of our college bask etball player props and best bets for Saturday, here is our best Iowa State vs. Houston prediction and our college basketball picks for the Big 12 Tournament Championship (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Iowa State vs. Houston prediction: Big 12 Tournament Championship
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings
Iowa State and Houston mirror each other defensively in many ways, as each ranks in the top five (per Haslametrics) in near-shot proximity allowed. However, they are each also elite in their ball screen coverages on the perimeter and deploy the mentality to force the ball out of the hands of the opponents' primary ball handler.
Iowa State point guard Keshon Gilbert ranks 11th in the Big 12 in percentage of his team's possessions and 15th in assist rate (23.5%). However, since the ball is in his hands the most of any Cyclones player, we expect him to draw the primary defensive attention of Houston's Jamal Shead, who ranks No. 1 in the country by a wide margin in EvanMiya's DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating).
Gilbert had four-plus assists in both regular-season meetings against Houston, but we love the plus-money value for him to have three or fewer assists in Saturday's tournament final. The Cougars have been locked in defensively with 15 total assists allowed through two games in this tournament.
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Iowa State vs. Houston best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Under 3.5 assists | N/A | N/A | N/A | Gilbert Under 3.5 assists |
| +105 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +100 |
As of this writing, only DraftKings and bet365 offer player props for this matchup, and DraftKings has the best odds for Under backers, as a $10 wager at +105 odds would pay out $20.50 as opposed to $20 with the same wager at bet365.
Fellow Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey also has an O/U of 3.5 assists, but Lipsey averages 4.8 assists per game while Gilbert averages 4.3, so the season-long data suggests Gilbert is the better value to be held to three or fewer assists.
Iowa State vs. Houston odds
Iowa State vs. Houston odds analysis
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering Houston as a 4.5-point favorite, as all of our other top sports betting sites are at -5. DraftKings is the only shop with reported line movement so far, lowering a half-point from an opening number of 5.5 within 10 minutes of the line being released.
Houston is 5-1-1 ATS against ranked opponents this season, while Iowa State covered the spread in 68.8% of its games (22-10-1 ATS) all season.
There is a one-point range among the best sports betting apps with regards to the total, as most have O/Us of 121, while BetRivers is on the high end of the market at 122. The total at FanDuel is down a full point from its opening number (from 122.5 to 121.5), while DraftKings initially raised from 122.5 to 123 (the only shop to touch 123 yet) before plummeting to 121.
That suggests sharp action, even early on Saturday morning, pounded the Under in this matchup.
Iowa State vs. Houston game info
- When: Saturday, March 16
- Tip-off: 6 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Miss.
- How to watch: ESPN
Iowa State-Houston prediction made Saturday at 6:4 3 a.m. ET.
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