Lionel Messi didn't play on March 10 against Montreal, leading Inter Miami to its first loss of the season, but they'll try to bounce back against unbeaten D.C. United as we make our Inter Miami vs. D.C. United predictions and Lionel Messi picks for Saturday, based on the MLS odds from our best sports betting sites.
Inter Miami has five wins in the nine regular-season matches in which Messi has played, but the team dropped its first match of the season on Sunday without him in the lineup. That continues a trend of the Herons winning just six times in 29 league games without the Argentine since the start of last season (D6, L17).
On his return to the lineup, Messi scored during Wednesday's CONCACAF Champions Cup win over Nashville. Inter Miami faces a tough trip to D.C. United on Saturday, where the Black-and-Red are unbeaten through the first three mat ches for just the second time since 2010. It's been five years since they went four games into a campaign without defeat.
Here are our best Inter Miami vs. D.C. United predictions for Saturday's matchup, along with our top Lionel Messi pick and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Inter Miami vs. D.C. United prediction: Saturday
Both teams have the highest xG in MLS, with D.C United leading the league with 8.9 and Miami second (7.94). United's Christian Benteke has three goals and is the joint-leading MLS goal scorer with four other players, including Messi.
On their travels, the Herons' xGA is 2.22. They also lead the league with 10 goals. D.C. United leads MLS with 18.7 shots per match, taking 56 in their first three matches of the season.
Messi and Luis Suarez were back in the starting lineup on Wednesday, and both players scored. It's no surprise that Miami has a higher chance of winning when the former Barcelona colleagues play. Suarez leads the league with three assists. However, head coach Troy Lesesne has made United a tough team to beat. Predicting the result in this matchup is difficult, which is why the play is the total.
These two sides almost guarantee goals. United's xGA this season is 1.34. The odds of both teams scoring are -200, meaning a 66.67% win probability. My limit for that play would be -160.
Our odds for this goals total are well within the threshold. At odds of -145 via DraftKings, we have an implied probability of 59.18%. With so much attacking talent on show, it's a solid play.
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Inter Miami vs. D.C. United best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.75 goals | Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals |
| -145 | -164 | -175 | -182 | -175 |
By taking the total at 2.75, DraftKings gives us better value for this play. The same book gives -110 odds with the total at 3, but there's added risk. Both teams will likely score, especially if all the main stars play.
Lionel Messi odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer | Messi anytime scorer |
| +100 | +125 | +110 | +110 | +125 |
Lionel Messi prediction
Messi made a scoring return to the team in midweek. That goal has taken him to five in five games in all competitions. He's scored in all of Miami's road games.
The odds are higher for him in this match, but we'll still back the GOAT to find the net on Saturday. The best odds are at FanDuel and bet365 (+125), giving us an implied probability of 44.44%. I'd make the play on anything down to -200 when betting on Messi.
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Inter Miami vs. D.C. United game info
- Date: Saturday, March 16, 2 p.m. ET
- TV: Apple TV
- Location: Audi Field, Washington, D.C.
- Weather: 61 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds
Inter Miami vs. D.C. United prediction made Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.
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