The Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) on Sep. 28 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-115).
The Illinois vs. Penn State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Illinois vs Penn State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 89.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Illinois vs Penn State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+5.95 Units / 117% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+1.80 Units / 1% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.65 Units / 165% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Kaytron Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
Illinois is 10-4 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .597
Illinois is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .619
Illinois is 9-2 (.818) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Illinois is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .762
Penn State is 6-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .535
Penn State is 13-2 (.867) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .685
Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– 12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .719
Penn State is 6-2 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .547
Penn State’s TEs has 20 receptions in 3 games (6.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 1.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 506 yards on 24 receptions (21.1 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.