The regular season didn't live up to the billing for the Hogs or the Illini, but both talented sides have a chance to kickstart a March Madness run in Des Moines. Read on for our Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
Ranked within the AP Top 25 to begin the year, both Illinois (20-12) and Arkansas (20-13) fell from grace throughout the season to finish the year outside the rankings.
Now the teams hailing from the Big Ten and SEC, respectively, are pitted against one another in the West's dreaded 8/9 matchup. Either side could give a genuine challenge to No. 1 seed Kansas, but which team will advance to the Round of 32 for a crack at the Jayhawks?
Here is our best Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Il linois vs. Arkansas odds
Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction
Finding an edge between Illinois and Arkansas in some of the more important historically predictive March Madness statistics is a difficult task. Both struggle at the free-throw line, shooting below 70% from the stripe. Both sides are relatively prone to turning the ball over, with nearly 13 turnovers per game. Illinois has the edge on the rebounding front, but Arkansas is the more proficient shooting team.
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Illinois went 2-3 outright and ATS in neutral-site games this season and had one of its worst shooting performances of the year in a neutral-site loss to Missouri in December. The Illini are 1-5 ATS over their past six games. On the other side, Arkansas was 5-2 outright and ATS at neutral sites this year.
Arkansas has been a KenPom darling all season long, and currently ranks around a dozen spots higher than Illinois at 20th overall in the metric. The star power is undeniable for the Razorbacks, with Nick Smith and Anthony Black both projected as NBA lottery picks.
The Razorbacks have the edge in talent and in recent experience following consecutive Elite Eight runs. The Hogs rank 24th in the nation in team shooting percentage and should be less susceptible to the scoring woes that can tank a March Madness run before it begins. While both teams have been inconsistent, I see Arkansas as having the high-end talent to win out in this situation.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Illinois vs. Arkansas best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas -1.5 | Arkansas -1.5 | Arkansas -1.5 | Arkansas -2 | Arkansas -2 |
| -110 | -115 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
The 8-9 matchups in the NCAA Tournament are always tough to read and given the similarity of the stories between these two teams, this could certainly be a game that comes down to the final possession.
Since we may need the hook to avoid a push, I prefer the -115 odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM on Arkansas -1.5 compared to the -2 line with standard -110 odds at Caesars and PointsBet. As of this writing, DraftKings offers the best of both worlds with the preferred -1.5 number and -110 odds.
At Arkansas -2, this play is reduced to three stars.
Illinois vs. Arkansas odds analysis
Arkansas opened as a 2.5-point favor ite before seeing the line move slightly toward Illinois. The Hogs now sit at a consensus spread of -2 across our recommended sports betting sites. As of Thursday morning, 66% of wagers have been placed on Arkansas.
The total opened at 144.5 and has dropped slightly to between 143.5 and 144 across our affiliated sportsbooks. Just over 50% of wagers on the total have gone on the Under.
Illinois vs. Arkansas game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 2023, 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
Illinois-Arkansas pick made 03/14/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
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