The idea of setting your own game lines probably seems daunting. Oddsmakers have mountains of information and public betting data to work with. However, you can put together something raw and fairly basic that at least gives you a good idea of where a line should be.
Power ratings are an inexact science. They are designed to be a guide to give you a frame of reference. They are subjective in nature, which means nobody’s power ratings are 100% accurate. But the ability to look at a game and compare your spread to the spread in the market can be a tremendously valuable resource.
I know people who have all kinds of spreadsheets and numerous sets of power ratings. I am not one of those people. But I can point you in the right direction to design an introductory set of power ratings you can use to try and get ahead of the market.
The function of a power rating is to be able to compare two teams and set a spread. Home-field advantage is included and I have a separate process for that. My process is neither complex nor time-consuming, and the nice thing is we can refer to the game lines that are out for Week 0, Week 1 and the Games of the Year to compare.
Here’s how to set up a set of positional power ratings:
Talent disparities are bigger in college football than in most sports. Analyzing roster turnover and transfers — from the portal and junior colleges — all go into the process.
Typically, my scale for power ratings ranges from 40 to 100, with teams such as Alabama and Ohio State near the century mark and teams such as UMass and New Mexico State at the bottom of the list.
To get to a max of 100, I use this scale:
QB: 15
RB: 10
WR: 10
OL: 15
DL: 15