We have made it! The final weekend of the NFL season is here, and it can be tricky! You will hear a variety of takes on this week from a betting perspective ranging from people who treat this as just another NFL week to some who will advocate that many of the games are unplayable due to uncertainty of playing time and motivation.
I strongly disagree with the latter statement. Week 18 is an opportunity for the bettor and one that you should take advantage of, but it does take more work than a mid-season week in the NFL. You have three specific styles of games to handicap: games with playoff implications, games with starters resting, and games where both teams are not in contention. Two other factors that are often discussed are draft position (is a team motivated to win) and player incentives.
Let’s start with the last two. They are both noise. Yes, teams want to have a high draft position as possible, but you rarely see a team all-out tank. Just look to last week, where Arizona had everything to lose by winning, and they still beat the Eagles as 12-point underdogs. That dropped them from the #2 draft spot down to #4, which is huge, with two marquee quarterbacks available this year. The players who are on the field are going to play hard. The coaches are going to coach hard. You may see some players sit, but that is information you will have before kickoff. Once the ball is in the air, everyone is trying to win.
Player incentives used to be a relevant angle, especially when it lined up with team goals or was star players whom franchises wanted to keep happy, but like most gambling angles, it has now become too public. When multiple X threads are released before books even post prop lines with the relevant incentive information, the edge is diminished. Prop totals will be adjusted up for the players that are hunting bonuses, and they will be bet early, which will either push the total higher or add to the juice. It may actually be time to zag and look at betting against incentives, especially for players who are likely to switch teams and are out of playoff contention.