How a Bettor Profited Off Aaron Judge's Walk-Off Home Run on DraftKings Sportsbook

A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor made a timely bet on Thursday night, resulting in a good-sized profit. Focusing on the New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals game, the bettor turned $50 into $400 with a live MLB bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The bettor made the following live bet at +700 odds:

• Aaron Judge to hit a Home Run

The bet was placed right before Judge's final at-bat in the bottom of the 9th inning.

There are some advanced statistics that support this being a sharp bet. Judge was facing Royals relief pitcher Scott Barlow, who has below-average fastball velocity by the standards of the typical relief pitcher. Barlow's fastball is averaging 93.4 mph this season, which is below the league average fastball velocity of 94.2 mph for relief pitchers.

Judge has been among MLB's best hitters against below-average fastball velocity. On fastballs tracked less than 94 mph by the league's pitch tracking system, Judge has hit .349 with an incredible .952 slugging percentage. Judge's wOBA-a more advanced hitting statistic-is .552 against fastballs less than 94 mph, which is the top mark among qualified hitters. The league average wOBA vs. fastballs less than 94 mph is .354, roughly 200 points less than Judge's incredible mark. Overall, 15 of Judge's 38 home runs coming into tonight's game have been against fastballs of less than 94 mph.

Judge ambushed a first-pitch fastball from Barlow that was a tick higher than his average velocity at 95 mph, but Judge barreled it anyway, sending the ball 109.6 mph off his bat deep into the Bronx night. The home run traveled an estimated 431 feet.

ALL RISE! pic.twitter.com/rHLuBShd4e

– New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 29, 2022

  
Read Full Article >