Our home run props for Wednesday based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites look toward two sluggers who are consistently among the league's hardest hitters.
Home runs can come in all shapes and sizes. There are long, sailing moonshots, and wall-scrapers that barely clear an outstretched glove. There's also the joke kind that bends around a weird foul pole at Fenway Park.
But the best dinger falls in the laser-beam category. It's the line drive that seems like it wouldn't come down if that fan or seat didn't get in the way. Cal Raleigh and Ketel Marte hit plenty of those while sitting among the league leaders in hard-hit percentage.
They're the focus of our home run props today.
Home run props for Wednesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Cal Raleigh ( +285 via FanDuel) vs. White Sox (Jonathan Cannon), at T-Mobile Park
- Ketel Marte (+675 via Caesars) vs. Angels (Jose Soriano), at Chase Field
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 12.4 |
| SLG%: .413 | HR/FB%: 6.3 |
| FB%: 37.0 | FB%: 20.0 |
| Hard hit %: 56.0 | Hard hit %: 43.6 |
Nothing comes easy with home run props, as hitting a baseball a long, long way is stupidly hard, even amid the most seemingly slanted matchups. But Cal Raleigh is just too appealing to pass up on Wednesday, despite the odds being short as far as home run prices go.
Raleigh gets to tee off on the Chicago White Sox and their feeble pitching staff that's given up the second-most home runs leaguewide and owns the 29th-ranked ERA at 4.97. Raleigh must surely be giddy about staring down Jonathan Cannon, a prospect making only his fourth MLB start after getting napalmed during the first three. Cannon allowed 11 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings.
He'll struggle mightily to contain a classic power-oriented hitter. Raleigh has never been one to focus on the batting average section of his stats, and that's especially true in 2024 with .211 hitting average. But he finished with a similarly low average in 2023 en route to 30 homers, and the righty has smacked 12 already in 2024.
Most impressively and importantly for this wager, when Raleigh does make contact it's of the ballpark-roof denting variety. He ranks eighth leaguewide with a hard-hit percentage of 55.6, putting him ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr., Oneil Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, and yes, even Giancarlo Stanton.
Be sure to get FanDuel's price here, as some of our other best sportsbooks are around +260. A $10 wager at +285 would lead to a $38.50 payout.
Best odds: +285 via FanDuel (26.0% implied probability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 13 | HR/9: 0.7 |
| SLG%: .500 | HR/FB%: 7.2 |
| FB%: 21.2 | FB%: 17.9 |
| Hard hit %: 54.1 | Hard hit %: 45.7 |
Similar to Raleigh, Ketel Marte has a well-established habit of inflicting pain on the white object hurled in his direction.
His mammoth 54.1% hard-hit rate sits not far behind Raleigh at 12th in MLB, and now he's facing a pitcher who regularly allows missiles. Jose Soriano's hard-hit rate allowed rests in just the 11th percentile leaguewide.
That should lead to plenty of opportunities for Marte to continue his sizzling June in which he's slashing .375/.512/.688. That red-hot run has included three homers and four multi-hit games. Marte also, of course, benefits from being a switch-hitter, and he's compiled a whopping 1.128 OPS when hitting from the left side against righties.
A $10 wager at these +675 odds would lead to a $77.50 payout.
Best odds: +675 via Caesars (12.90% implied probability)
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