Gunnar Henderson is primed to keep mashing as part of our home run props based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites.
It doesn't really matter how the baseball gets past the fence when you're throwing down a few bucks on a home run prop. We only care that it makes that trip.
And on Friday we're backing two sluggers who go about their business very differently, but the result is often the same.
First, there's fast-rising Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson, who's disciplined and selective, but pounces on his pitch with authority. Then we have Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics, who strikes out in buckets amid his power-focused ways, but he'll regularly deposit a ball in the upper deck too.
It's about the destination in Friday's home run props, and not the journey.
Home run props for Frid ay
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Gunnar Henderson (+450 via BetMGM) vs. Rangers (Max Scherzer), at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
- Brent Rooker (+350 via FanDuel) vs. Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi), at Chase Field
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 26 | HR/9: 0.0 |
| SLG%: .615 | HR/FB%: 0.0 |
| FB%: 26.2 | FB%: 25.0 |
| Hard hit %: 57.5 | Hard hit %: 16.7 |
Max Scherzer remains an athletic marvel while closing in on 40 years old. He just returned from a thumb injury and immediately mowed down the Kansas City Royals during his 2024 debut, allowing zero earn runs with four strikeouts over five innings.
However, even the most impressive pitchers are in fact human on some level, and it's a swift step up in competition for a veteran making only his second start and now needing to face the Baltimore Orioles and their behemoth offense. That very much includes Gunnar Henderson, and Scherzer's mere presence on the mound is leading to a rather juicy home run price for the star shortstop on Friday.
Henderson is getting +450 odds from BetMGM, and he's often closer to the +320 FanDuel is offering.
So sprint to BetMGM to back a lefty bat brimming with power, as Henderson sits second in MLB with his 26 home runs. He's also posting the leagu e's fifth-highest hard-hit percentage and ninth-best adjusted average exit velocity (97.1).
He'll take all that against a future Hall of Famer who's still been susceptible against lefties at times, posting a career .712 OPS allowed as opposed to a .575 against righties.
Best odds: +450 via BetMGM (18.18% implied probability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 2.0 |
| SLG%: .506 | HR/FB%: 12.8 |
| FB%: 31.4 | FB%: 36.1 |
| Hard hit %: 52.3 | Hard hit %: 35.5 |
Yes, backing a hitter who strikes out as often as Brent Rooker can be an unpleasant experience. Rooker is tied for the sixth-most strikeouts in MLB entering play on Friday with 97, and consequently he's recorded the third-worst strikeout rate at 34.6%.
But that matters for many other batter props. Around these parts, we give a slugger who's completely selling out for power a big ol' bear hug. If Rooker wants to strike out three times, we say have at it and enjoy. It takes just one connection amid that whiffing, and Rooker excels in his own way with that approach.
His hard-hit percentage ranks in the top 6% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant, and Rooker is still recording a quality OPS of .845. He's also notched a hit in eight of his last nine games, four of which have gone for extra bases, including a home run.
And now Rooker gets an opportunity to tee off on Slade C ecconi, the Arizona Diamondbacks hurler who's allowed a homer in all but three of his 11 appearances in 2024. The four-seamer he leans on heavily while throwing it 55.2% of the time is also getting tattooed to the tune of a .578 slugging percentage.
Best odds: +350 via FanDuel (22.22% implied probability)
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