A new week begins with hope for more soaring baseballs in our home run props based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites.
Summer has finally arrived in the areas of North America where that season is fleeting, and most hybernating creatures awoke from slumbers long ago during the spring.
But some home-run smashing beasts take a little longer, though they find their stride eventually. Such is the case with Matt Olson of the World Series odds-contending Atlanta Braves, who gets a highly appealing matchup on Monday. Ditto for Marcus Semien of the defending champion Texas Rangers. Meanwhile, Willy Adames keeps hacking away as one of MLB's best power-hitting shortstops.
We examine all three in today's home run props.
Home run props for Monday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Will y Adames (+450 via Caesars) vs. Angels (Jose Soriano), at Angel Stadium
- Matt Olson (+330 via FanDuel) vs. Tigers (Reese Olson), at Truist Park
- Marcus Semien (+575 via BetMGM) vs. Mets (David Peterson), at Globe Life Field
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 0.7 |
| SLG%: .439 | HR/FB%: 7.9 |
| FB%: 35.0 | FB%: 17.6 |
| Hard hit %: 40.3 | Hard hit %: 45.1 |
This is a batter-pitcher matchup in which finesse meets fury, and Adames will provide the firepower.
Jose Soriano has posted a quality 3.48 ERA thus far in 2024. But he's far from a flamethrower, and the righty achieves success while leaning heavily on soft deception. Primarily that means chucking a whole lot of sinkers while throwing that pitch a whopping 40% of the time.
That fits right into Adames' wheelhouse, as he's currently putting up a .286 batting average and .429 slugging percentage against sinkers. His expected numbers on those fronts are even a little better while sitting at .307 and .434, respectively. Soriano also throws a knuckle curve at the second-highest rate in his arsenal, and Adames is posting a 44.4% hard-hit rate when facing that pitch.
Be sure to avoid FanDuel here, as it's offering by far the worst odds among our best sportsbooks at +320.
Best odds: +450 via Caesars (18.18% implied probability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 0.5 |
| SLG%: .471 | HR/FB%: 4.4 |
| FB%: 28.5 | FB%: 17.6 |
| Hard hit %: 50.5 | Hard hit %: 45.8 |
Consistently depositing balls where vendors are trying to sell overpriced candy in the outfield bleachers is incredibly hard. So expecting Matt Olson to reach the 50-plus-homer plateau again was perhaps unfair (he led the league in 2023 with 54).
But Olson has spent June awakening from an early-season deep sleep by his standards, and he's gone with warming up to scorching hot while slashing .478/.539/.913 over the past week. He's now posted a 1.065 OPS during June, a sharp climb from the first baseman's .797 rate in May.
And now he gets to take his baseball-denting ways to the batter's box against Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson, who's suddenly struggling. Olson has posted a respectable 3.68 ERA overall as one of the Tigers' promising young hurlers. However, the right-hander has allowed a gargantuan 17 earned runs over his last three starts, including three homers given up. His ERA wa s just 1.92 after a May 25 appearance, but it's been steadily rising since.
The pricing differences to here are mostly marginal at our best sports betting apps. But stay clear of Caesars, as it's down at +290.
Best odds: +330 via FanDuel (23.26% implied probability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 0.5 |
| SLG%: .432 | HR/FB%: 4.0 |
| FB%: 28.4 | FB%: 16.4 |
| Hard hit %: 35.1 | Hard hit %: 41.0 |
Marcus Semien has been limping along in 2024 compared to 2023 when he was an integral part of a championship-winning club.
However, similar to Olson, there's been a sharp uptick in power lately, with Semien's OPS climbing from .670 in May to .913 during June. And how he gets an opportunity to keep that going against a pitcher still searching for his form after a lengthy IL stint.
David Peterson will be making just his fourth start since coming off the IL in late May following hip surgery. He's pitched past the fifth inning only once, and Peterson was pummeled during his most recent outing against the Miami Marlins, who lit him up for four runs and eight hits across five innings.
Peterson relies on breaking pitches. But he still mixes in his fastball 17.5% of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and it's a subpar pitch that ranks in the 27th percentile in velocity. Semie n can sit on that and feast, as he's slugging .522 against four-seam fastballs. He's also demolishing lefties while slashing .341/.398/.577.
Best odds: +575 via BetMGM (14.81% implied probability)
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