Our home run props for Friday based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites include two juicy batter-pitcher matchups, with one taking place at the home run haven of Coors Field.
Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates doesn't look like a shortstop in any way. He's a tower of humanity at 6-foot-7 with a rifle for an arm. And the most appealing part of his arsenal for our pusposes is that he punishes baseballs regularly.
He now takes his hard-hitting act to Coors Field, and the mountains are often kind to such power-hitting beasts, especially amid an ideal pitching matchup. The latter is also true for Danny Jansen of the Toronto Blue Jays, who's now more than fine being true to himself and his inner soul, and letting his pull-happy flag fly.
In addition to our Yankees vs. Red Sox player props, let's take a closer look with our home run props.
Home run props for Friday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Danny Jansen (+400 via FanDuel) vs. Guardians (Logan Allen), at Progressive Field
- Oneil Cruz (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Rockies (Ryan Feltner), at Coors Field
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 5 | HR/9: 1.9 |
| SLG%: .469 | HR/FB%: 14.3 |
| FB%: 35.7 | FB%: 27.5 |
| Hard hit %: 36 | Hard hit %: 47.5 |
This matchup is oozing with baseball-obliterating potential.
In one corner we have Danny Jansen, the Toronto Blue Jays catcher who has gone on a journey of self-discovery as a hitter and is now fine with who he is and wants to become. He's done trying to use all fields and spray the ball around. That didn't work, and now his life, only when attempting to pull every ball he swings at over the left-field fence, is filled with happiness.
Jansen's pull rate has climbed rapidly from 36.9% in 2022 to 44.6% and his line drive rate has risen similarly (18.4% in 2023 to 26.8% now). He's still disciplined, though, while striking out on just 13.3% of his plate appearances, which ranks among the top 5% of MLB. But when Jansen does swing he's doing so with authority, and with the intent of giving the fans in the left-field bleachers a souvenir. The result has been a quality .816 OPS, which wou ld be the second-best mark of his career if the season ended now.
That approach pairs well with Cleveland Guardians starter Logan Allen, who's been gifting home runs generously while tied for the MLB lead in dingers allowed (14). The southpaw's 47.5% hard-hit rate sits in the bottom 6% of baseball, and he's struggling even more against righties while allowing a whopping .936 OPS.
Be sure to make this bet at FanDuel, as Jansen is listed as short as +330 through DraftKings and +340 at Caesars. A $10 wager at this +400 price will lead to a payout of $50.
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel (20.0% implied probability)
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 9 | HR/9: 10.8 |
| SLG%: .432 | HR/FB%: 8.3 |
| FB%: 19.7 | FB%: 27.3 |
| Hard hit %: 52.6 | Hard hit %: 38.5 |
Oneil Cruz may never be a consistent contact hitter, and that'll be just fine once he becomes more disciplined and can cut down on his strikeouts a little while not fully selling out for power.
But the power is there in abundance. We see it in his hard-hit percentage that ranks 16th leaguewide, and even more impressively, his barrels per plate appearance of 11.1 that's eighth in MLB. He's also been making more contact in June while boasting a .286 batting average during the month, which bodes well when combined with the frequent power hitting.
And now he heads to the launchpad otherwise known as Coors Field. Cruz will get to take his hacks against Ryan Feltner and his 5.74 ERA. Feltner has given up nine homers in 2024, including five in his past seven outings. What's even more inviting for Cruz is that Feltner's home-run-to-fly-ball ratio has risen sharply from 3.3% in 2023 to 8.3%, and his extra-base hit allowed percentage has done the same while moving from 24% to 34%.
Be sure again to go with FanDuel here, as Cruz is being listed as short as +300 through DraftKings. A $10 wager at these +340 odds will lead to a payout of $44.
Best odds: +340 via FanDuel (22.7% implied probability)
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