Several of the best home run hitters in the MLB are set to take the field on Friday, and we're offering our top home run props based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites.
Who doesn't love ending the work week with a loaded slate of MLB games featuring some of the best and biggest bats in the sport? Our home run props today feature a few MLB MVP odds favorites, one of the best young mashers in baseball, and a veteran with over 300 career dingers.
The main focus for today is on known commodities playing for World Series odds contending teams with favorable matchups against less than stellar pitchers.
Home run props for Friday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Bryce Harper (+400 via FanDuel) vs. Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery), at Citizens Bank Park
- Julio Rodriguez (+550 via BetMGM) vs. Marlins (Trevor Rogers), at loanDepot Park
- Carlos Santana (+540 via FanDuel) vs. A's (Joey Estes), at Oakland Coliseum
- Shohei Ohtani (+340 via Caesars) vs. Angels (Patrick Sandoval), at Dodger Stadium
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 17 | HR/9: 1.1 |
| SLG%: .539 | HR/FB%: 10.6 |
| FB%: 32.8 | FB%: 23.2 |
| Hard hit %: 47.9 | Hard hit %: 37.6 |
After a slow start to the season, Harper has returned to MVP form and has the city of Philadelphia enamored with his home run-hitting ways. Harper already has 17 dingers this season, including two in his last outing, and he's been one of the hottest bats in June.
This month, Harper's slashing .333/.444/.600 with a 1.044 OPS and four bombs. That should have Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery quivering at the thought of Harper at the plate. Montgomery, who has allowed three home runs in his last three starts, doesn't match up well with Harper at all.
Montgomery's top pitch is his sinker (33.5% of the time), which Harper could shell him for using. The Philadelphia Phillies star is hitting .409 with a .750 SLG% against sinkers this season. Montgomery could be in for a long but short night.
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel (20% implied probability )
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 7 | HR/9: 1.17 |
| SLG%: .353 | HR/FB%: 12.9 |
| FB%: 24.8 | FB%: 21.5 |
| Hard hit %: 49.5 | Hard hit %: 44.3 |
It hasn't been the season most expected from Rodriguez after the 23-year-old made two All-Star appearances in his first two seasons. Still, even with a slow start, he's one of the most terrifying bats in baseball because of his sheer power.
Rodriguez almost has as many homers in 18 games in June (3) as he did in the first 59 of the season (4). While he's still not putting up Silver Slugger numbers, he's poised to capitalize on this matchup with lefty Trevor Rogers. Rodriguez is far more productive against southpaws this season than righties.
Rogers also happens to have given up a homer in four straight games, and his top two pitches – four-seamer and sinker – are two of Rodriguez's favorite to mash. The Seattle Mariners center fielder has an over .488 SLG% against both pitches this season.
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM (15.38% implied p robability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 1.56 |
| SLG%: .447 | HR/FB%: 10.3 |
| FB%: 27.3 | FB%: 35.2 |
| Hard hit %: 39.2 | Hard hit %: 44.4 |
Joey Estes was nine years old when Santana debuted in the majors. Now Santana can teach the rookie a lesson and send Estes into the night regretting how frequently he throws his four-seamer.
Even at 38, Santana can still take a fastball for a ride. He's batting .307 with a .600 SLG% against four-seamers this season – Estes most used pitch at 56.1%. And Santana's been a monster in June. This month, he's slashing .364/.426/.673 with a 1.099 OPS.
If you need more convincing, Estes has given up six home runs in just seven starts, including four in his last two outings. Trust the vet to make a statement in front of an empty Oakland Coliseum.
Best odds: +540 via FanDuel (15.63% implied probability)
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 21 | HR/9: 0.93 |
| SLG%: .615 | HR/FB%: 10.5 |
| FB%: 26.7 | FB%: 24.7 |
| Hard hit %: 62.5 | Hard hit %: 36.6 |
To close it out, I'm not going to try to get tricky with it. Let's just go with the guy who launches rockets to the moon more frequently than NASA. Ohtani is the NL MVP leader for a reason, with a jaw-dropping 21 home runs and a .615 SLG% in 74 games this season.
He's already hit as many home runs this month (7) as he did in May, but he's done it in fewer games as his SLG% has risen to .639 in June. In the last week alone, he's hit four homers, and that's a bad sign for Patrick Sandoval, who's given up six dingers in his last six starts.
The Los Angeles Angels lefty could be eaten alive by Ohtani. Three of his four top pitches are the two-time MVPs hardest hit this season. Against four-seamers, sliders, and sinkers, Ohtani has a SLG% of .727 or better. Sandoval's going to be sweating before he even takes the mound.
Best odds: +340 via Caesars (22.73% implied probability)
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