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They say chicks dig the long ball. Well, so do our bank accounts, as hitting on a home run prop can lead to massive profits, and we have four tasty picks from our best MLB betting sites.
I don't often bet on home runs. They're extremely volatile and are difficult to project. However, if you put in the work and gather enough information, you can still make informed decisions that could lead to a big payday.
That's what we've done today with these four picks, starting with a superstar in Philadelphia. Bryce Harper headlines one of the biggest games of the day, as his Phillies look to rebound against the New York Yankees in a matchup between World Series odds contenders.
Joining Harper are three outfielders who perhaps aren't known for their power. However, we're getting great value with all three, and we've seen some of our best sports betting sites alr eady move their odds in our favor.
Let's dive into the picks before we lose these tasty prices.
Home run props for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Bryce Harper (+360 via FanDuel) vs. Yankees (Gerrit Cole), at Citizens Bank Ballpark ???
- Cedric Mullins (+775 via BetMGM) vs. Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt), at Oriole Park ???
- Jose Siri (+850 via BetMGM) vs. Marlins (Edward Cabrera), at Tropicana Field ???
- Jurickson Profar (+950 via BetMGM) vs. Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow), at Petco Park ??
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 24 | HR/9: 2.31 |
| SLG%: .555 | HR/FB%: 18.4 |
| FB%: 42.2 | FB%: 47.6 |
| Hard hit %: 47.9 | Hard hit %: 37.9 |
First, my methodology for these picks: I ran three projection models separately against every single hitter available on Tuesday, and then I ran the average projection against those who provided positive expected value bets against each of the projections. From there, I grabbed the four who profiled as the highest EV bets.
Harper is perhaps the best bet on Tuesday because of the combination of expected value (42.41% +EV) and implied probability (projection of 0.37).
Additionally, his home run odds have shortened at Pinnacle – which features ones of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – from +319 early Tuesday morning to +293 at the time of writing.
Best odds: +360 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 21.74%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 0.83 |
| SLG%: .397 | HR/FB%: 9.1 |
| FB%: 51.4 | FB%: 34.7 |
| Hard hit %: 32.7 | Hard hit %: 37.9 |
These odds at BetMGM are a steal. We're getting 36.72% +EV through the +775 price, and Pinnacle shortened its odds from +767 (still shorter than this number) to +558.
Sure, Mullins isn't known for his power and Bassitt is the best among these four pitchers at limiting the long ball, but the value is too good to pass up.
Best odds: +775 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 11.43%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 2.11 |
| SLG%: .392 | HR/FB%: 27.3 |
| FB%: 42.9 | FB%: 33.3 |
| Hard hit %: 41.7 | Hard hit %: 48.5 |
In terms of pure value, this is the best bet on the board. We're getting nearly 80% +EV through these +850 odds, and Pinnacle shortened from an opening number of +780 to +596.
Siri is projected for 0.21 homers on Tuesday, and he could hit higher in the lineup for a Rays team trading away its stars.
Best odds: +850 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 10.53%
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 18 | HR/9: 1.03 |
| SLG%: .491 | HR/FB%: 14.6 |
| FB%: 37.4 | FB%: 34 |
| Hard hit %: 41.8 | Hard hit %: 38.7 |
This is the only one of these three props I didn't bet myself, and that's reflected with the two-star rating. It's not that it's a particularly bad bet (it's still showing 37.25% +EV), but there isn't quite the discrepancy between the best odds at BetMGM and Pinnacle's price that I'd like.
Additionally, Pinnacle actually lengthened the odds on Profar to hit a home run from +859 to +893 this afternoon, causing me to hit the brakes for now.
Best odds: +950 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 9.52%
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