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If you didn't get enough fireworks on the Fourth of July, turn your attention to Friday's slate of MLB games.
Not only are a bunch of MLB MVP odds contenders set to take the field, but many of them have matchups that favor them cashing our home run props.
In the NL, Marcell Ozuna and the Atlanta Braves take on the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:20 p.m. ET before Shohei Ohtani and the World Series odds favorite Los Angeles Dodgers do battle with the Milwaukee Brewers at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Sandwiched between those two are a pair of AL matchups that feature All-Star starters, with the Houston Astros playing the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 p.m. ET and the Baltimore Orioles going against the Oakland Athletics at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Home run props for Friday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scal e.
- Marcell Ozuna (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Phillies (Aaron Nola), at Truist Park ???
- Yordan Alvarez (+375 via bet365) vs. Twins (Pablo Lopez), at Target Field ???
- Adley Rutschman (+675 via Caesars) vs. Athletics (Hogan Harris), at Oakland Coliseum ??
- Shohei Ohtani (+250 via FanDuel) vs. Brewers (Aaron Civale), at Dodger Stadium ????
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 21 | HR/9: 1.2 |
| SLG%: .554 | HR/FB%: 14 |
| FB%: 32.5 | FB%: 33.2 |
| Hard hit %: 54.5 | Hard hit %: 35.4 |
It's been an injury-filled season for the Braves, but Ozuna has been mashing all year despite all the bumps and bruises. The two-time All-Star is third in the NL in both home runs (21) and SLG (.554), and he's hit 18 of his 21 dingers off of righties like Aaron Nola.
Nola hasn't been particularly good against big-swinging bats either. He's allowed the 16th-most home runs in the MLB (14) and has given up seven in his last eight starts. Truist Park won't be doing him any favors either as it has had the eighth-most dingers hit in it since 2022 (108), per Baseball Savant.
Ozuna also happens to be demolishing three of Nola's top four pitches. Nola has a four-seamer (25.3%), sinker (20.9%), and cutter (10.8%) in his rotation, and Ozuna's got a .576 SLG or better against each of them. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays a $34 profit.
Best odds: +340 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 22.73%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 19 | HR/9: 1.6 |
| SLG%: .553 | HR/FB%: 16.2 |
| FB%: 36.2 | FB%: 41.3 |
| Hard hit %: 47 | Hard hit %: 38.3 |
This home run prop is as much about Yordan Alvarez as it is about Pablo Lopez. Alvarez has mashed three dingers in his last four games and has been on an absolute tear since the beginning of June. Last month, he slashed .349/.430/.709 with seven home runs in 23 games. To start July, he's got a jaw-dropping 1.417 SLG.
That's bad news for Lopez, who has allowed the fifth-most home runs in the MLB this season (17). Lopez has only not given up a homer in four of his 17 starts and over his last nine outings, he's allowed 11 of them.
Lopez also predominantly uses his four-seamer (39.2%), and Alvarez has a .520 SLG against them this year, with 11 of his 19 dingers coming off fastballs. A $10 bet on this prop pays a $37.50 profit.
Best odds: +375 via bet365 | Implied probability: 21.05%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 15 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .461 | HR/FB%: 11.5 |
| FB%: 32.3 | FB%: 42.6 |
| Hard hit %: 42 | Hard hit %: 36.1 |
Given Adley Rutschman's recent slump, it's clear our best sports betting apps aren't quite sure how to price the All-Star right now. This same home run prop has odds around +520 at our other best sportsbooks, which is why the price at Caesars is hard to pass on.
While Rutschman hasn't been at his best lately, this is the perfect bounce-back game for the Orioles slugger. He's demolished lefties like Hogan Harris all season, slashing .400/.434/.629 against southpaws with six homers in 105 at-bats.
Harris also goes to his four-seamer an absurd amount (59.3%) and that's hands down been the pitch Rutschman has hit best with a .365 average and .615 SLG. And he's hit Harris' second-most used pitch – curveball (16.3%) – well too with a .538 SLG. A $10 bet on this prop pays a $67.50 profit.
Best odds: +675 via Caesars | Implied probability: 12.9%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 27 | HR/9: 1.7 |
| SLG%: .636 | HR/FB%: 14.8 |
| FB%: 28.9 | FB%: 41.2 |
| Hard hit %: 60.5 | Hard hit %: 30.8 |
There are just certain sluggers who really don't need any explanation as to why they're worth backing. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani sit atop that list, and for as obvious as the reason is that I'm backing Ohtani, I feel obligated to detail why it's an even better play than normal.
First of all, Aaron Civale has allowed the sixth-most home runs in the MLB this season (16). In 17 starts, he's given up at least one home run in 14 games, including allowing five dingers in his last five outings. Meanwhile, Ohtani is cooking righties with a .712 SLG and 21 of his 27 home runs.
He's also coming off his most home run-rich month of the season after hammering 12 moonshots in 26 games in June. And a $10 bet still pays a $25 profit on this prop despite all the evidence supporting Ohtani launching one on his birthday.
Best odds: +250 via FanDuel | Im plied probability: 28.57%
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