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We're back to chasing deep flies after the All-Star break, with a full slate around MLB providing a deep menu for Tuesday's home run prop predictions from our best MLB betting sites.
In the pursuit of balance and home run zen, we're targeting a slanted matchup with the appropriately short odds, and a long shot featuring a pitcher who's been plunging toward his lowest bottom recently.
The former is Tyler O'Neil, the Boston Red Sox outfielder who's been on a tear lately and hit two homers against the World Series odds-leading Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday. The latter is Jose Siri, who's also hot after hitting home runs in consecutive games.
Home run props for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Tyler O'Neil (+250 via Betway) vs. Rockies (Ty Blach), at Coors Field ????
- Jose Siri (+650 via Betway) vs. Blue Jays (Jose Berrios), at Rogers Centre ????
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 18 | HR/9: 1.5 |
| SLG%: .515 | HR/FB%: 8.3 |
| FB%: 29.9 | FB%: 27.4 |
| Hard hit %: 48.5 | Hard hit %: 41.7 |
This matchup is oozing with home run potential.
First, there's the eternal status of Coors Field as a launching pad in that sweet, sweet thin mountain air. The Colorado Rockies' home field ranks ninth in MLB in home runs allowed this season, and it's regularly a house of horrors for any pitcher.
That's especially true for Ty Blach with his ballooning 5.46 ERA. His Statcast page resembles the deepest and darkest parts of the ocean while covered in blue. Most notably for this matchup, his expected slugging of .537 ranks in the bottom 1% of MLB.
Righties are also torching the southpaw, with Blach giving up a gargantuan .994 OPS compared to .626 against lefties. It all sets up well for a slugger in O'Neil who sells out for power.
He's not far removed from a monstrous June when the Canadian slugged .597. And now he gets to face a lefty who leans heavily on his sinker, a pitch O'Neil is slugging .591 against with a .364 batting average.
A $10 wager on this prop would lead to a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 via Betway | Implied probability: 25.00%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 1.6 |
| SLG%: .411 | HR/FB%: 11.8 |
| FB%: 31.2 | FB%:28.1 |
| Hard hit %: 41.8 | Hard hit %: 42.9 |
We're balancing out the O'Neil pick that comes with shorter odds (by home run prop standards) with this juicier price on Siri from Betway. It's a play that's more about fading Jose Berrios than it is riding with Siri, though there's still appeal to both.
Berrios being a dinger factory isn't a new development. Even when he's at his best, the Blue Jays' right-hander allows plenty of long balls. He's given up 25-plus homers in each of the past two seasons, topping out at a career-high 29 in 2022, the league's sixth-highest total that campaign.
We're just clear of the All-Star break, and Berrios has already coughed up 21 round-trippers, which is tied for an MLB worst. Many of those bombs have come lately too as he spirals after a strong start to the season.
Berrios has allowed eight homers since the start of June, and his July ERA through three sta rts sits at an astronomical 8.40.
Which makes it a fine time to pounce on appetizing long-shot odds from Siri. We care little about his utter inability to make consistent contact around here. Oh sure, it would help, but we're craving maximum power in a matchup with a homer-prone hurler. And when Siri does make contact, it often results in a baseball that sails a long way.
His xwOBAcon (which removes strikeouts, walks, and hit by pitch in an effort to better gauge a hitter's productiveness when the ball is in play) ranks among the top six in MLB, according to Baseball Savant. He's hot too after hitting three homers in his last five games.
A $10 bet at these +650 odds would result in a $65 profit.
Best odds: +650 via Betway | Implied probability: 13.33%
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